Field analysis
Corryong Cup 2017 — which behaviours separated the field, task by task.
Analysis computed
Pilot class: open
What separated the field, across tasks
A metric that holds its sign and magnitude across every task is telling you about flying. One that swings between tasks is telling you about the weather on those days. Rank 1 is best, so a metric where more is better shows a negative ρ.
| Metric | Trend | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | mean ρ | mean |ρ| | Consistency | comp ρ | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time behind the leader at ESS | — | — | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.92 | 0.92 | consistent 0−/2+ | 0.63 | 19 | strong | |
| Glide speed (post-start) | — | -0.29 | -0.90 | -0.83 | -0.80 | 0.80 | consistent 2−/0+ | -0.59 | 33 | strong | |
| Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band | — | -0.52 | -0.74 | -0.63 | -0.68 | 0.68 | consistent 2−/0+ | -0.60 | 33 | strong | |
| Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb | — | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.64 | consistent 0−/2+ | 0.41 | 27 | moderate | |
| Search fraction of the speed section | — | 0.44 | 0.54 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.57 | consistent 0−/2+ | 0.33 | 36 | moderate | |
| Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb) | — | 0.09 | -0.63 | -0.55 | -0.52 | 0.54 | consistent 2−/0+ | -0.67 | 31 | strong | |
| Time lost on speed-section legs | — | -0.07 | 0.68 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.51 | consistent 0−/2+ | 0.38 | 32 | moderate | |
| Gaggle departure win rate | — | — | -0.30 | -0.77 | -0.48 | 0.48 | quiet 1−/0+ | -0.31 | 21 | within noise | |
| Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions) | — | 0.80 | -0.68 | -0.38 | -0.45 | 0.58 | quiet 1−/0+ | -0.55 | 30 | strong | |
| Glide L/D vs field (per leg) | — | -0.79 | -0.61 | -0.03 | -0.40 | 0.40 | consistent 2−/0+ | -0.30 | 30 | within noise | |
| Climbs per 100 km flown | — | — | 0.46 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.39 | quiet 0−/1+ | 0.37 | 29 | moderate | |
| Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs | — | -0.43 | -0.36 | -0.29 | -0.34 | 0.34 | quiet 1−/0+ | -0.27 | 34 | within noise | |
| Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance) | — | -0.60 | 0.83 | 0.15 | 0.33 | 0.51 | quiet 0−/1+ | 0.12 | 32 | within noise | |
| Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle) | — | 0.01 | -0.66 | 0.19 | -0.26 | 0.39 | quiet 1−/0+ | -0.54 | 36 | strong | |
| Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal | — | -0.03 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.17 | quiet | 0.11 | 35 | within noise | |
| Speed-to-fly proxy | — | — | 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.14 | 0.14 | quiet | 0.08 | 28 | within noise | |
| Dolphin climb fraction | — | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.11 | quiet | -0.09 | 31 | within noise | |
| Climb rate vs field in shared thermals | — | -0.55 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.08 | 0.08 | quiet | -0.06 | 34 | within noise | |
| Altitude margin over final glide at ESS | — | — | -0.00 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.09 | quiet | 0.02 | 19 | within noise | |
| Time to core a thermal | — | 0.10 | -0.24 | 0.08 | -0.08 | 0.16 | quiet | 0.13 | 35 | within noise | |
| Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band) | — | — | -0.01 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.08 | quiet | 0.03 | 36 | within noise | |
| Circle fit error relative to circle radius | — | 0.40 | -0.19 | 0.13 | -0.02 | 0.19 | quiet | -0.06 | 31 | within noise | |
| Time in non-sinking air | -0.43 | -0.53 | 0.30 | 0.08 | -0.01 | 0.30 | quiet 1−/0+ | -0.17 | 36 | within noise | |
| Wind (task / hourly / per leg) | — | — | — | — | — | — | quiet | — | — | ||
| Climb by hour | — | — | — | — | — | — | quiet | — | — | ||
| Start delay (gate to crossing) | — | — | — | — | — | — | quiet | — | — |
Ranked by |mean ρ| (n-weighted signed mean), so consistent separation leads — flip-flopping tasks cancel there, while mean |ρ| keeps their per-day power visible; a large gap between the two means the payoff depended on the day. Consistency counts only tasks whose |ρ| cleared their noise floor (the filled sparkline dots; hollow = within noise): − means larger values went with better ranks. A split is a finding — the payoff depended on the day — not a defect.
Verdicts: strong |ρ| ≥ 0.5, moderate ≥ 0.3, weak below — but only after clearing the noise floor for that metric's n. within noise means shuffled ranks produce a coefficient that size more than 5% of the time, so it is indistinguishable from luck whatever its magnitude.
Consistency map
The same table as a picture: how much each behaviour separated the field per day (across) against how consistently it pulled one way (up).
Standings behind these figures
| # | Pilot | Tasks | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Crosby | 4 | 1821 |
| 2 | Josh Woods | 3 | 1749 |
| 3 | Rohan Taylor | 4 | 1698 |
| 4 | Richard Martin | 3 | 1503 |
| 5 | Hughbert Alexander | 2 | 1499 |
| 6 | Rob de Groot | 3 | 1461 |
| 7 | Dick Heffer | 3 | 1427 |
| 8 | Ward Gunn | 3 | 1254 |
| 9 | James Atkinson | 3 | 1086 |
| 10 | Paul Bissett-Amess | 3 | 1061 |
| 11 | Rory Duncan | 2 | 1049 |
| 12 | Peter Burkitt | 2 | 1018 |
| 13 | Adrian Connor | 2 | 985 |
| 14 | Tyler Borradaile | 1 | 922 |
| 15 | James Morgan | 4 | 911 |
| 16 | Andy Schmidt | 2 | 895 |
| 17 | John Greenwood | 3 | 798 |
| 18 | Mick Lamb | 2 | 698 |
| 19 | Bradley Elliott | 2 | 627 |
| 20 | Peter Garrone | 2 | 619 |
| 21 | Col Jackson | 2 | 538 |
| 22 | James McGinty | 2 | 529 |
| 23 | Justin Gilmour | 4 | 487 |
| 24 | Dustan Hansen | 2 | 479 |
| 25 | Brett Gilmour | 3 | 447 |
| 26 | Joe Baker | 2 | 376 |
| 27 | John Harriott | 1 | 358 |
| 28 | Hossain Tefaili | 2 | 345 |
| 29 | Nolan Bear | 2 | 314 |
| 30 | Andre Johnson | 2 | 267 |
| 31 | Nariyuki Watabe | 2 | 218 |
| 32 | Richard Hughes | 2 | 202 |
| 33 | Howard Taylor | 2 | 197 |
| 34 | Rob Larkin | 1 | 88 |
| 35 | Les Bestt | 1 | 72 |
| 36 | Harrison Rowntree | 1 | 4 |
Metric glossary
How every metric named above is measured. These are the engine's current method descriptions; each task's own report carries the same prose next to its numbers.
Day profile & wind
- Wind (by hour and by leg)(“Wind” in tables)
- Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction
Wind estimated from every pilot’s circling (centre drift preferred, ground-speed modulation as fallback), vector-averaged two ways: by hour of day (how the wind built and shifted through the day) and by speed-section leg (the wind each part of the course saw). Field-level only — no per-pilot value.
- Climb by hour(“Climb/hr” in tables)
- Measured in metres per second · no expected direction
All pilots’ thermal climbs bucketed by the hour the climb started (labelled in the competition’s time zone): median and 90th-percentile average climb rate per hour show how the day’s lift developed. Field-level only — no per-pilot value.
Climbing
- Time to core a thermal(“Core s” in tables)
- Measured in seconds · lower is better
For each thermal of at least 60 s, the seconds from entering until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the pilot’s thermals — how fast they centre the best lift after arriving.
- Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal(“ExitDecay” in tables)
- Measured in metres per second · no expected direction
For each thermal of at least 90 s, the climb rate over its final 30 s — the "give-up rate". The value is the median: low means the pilot abandons weakening lift early, high means they ride climbs to the end; the correlation sign says which behaviour paid on this task.
- Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs(“Accept%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.
- Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band(“ExitBand%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
The altitude at which the pilot left each post-start thermal, as a percentage of the day’s working band (0% = field floor, 100% = field ceiling); the value is the median. High means topping out every climb, low means leaving early with climb still available.
- Circle fit error relative to circle radius(“Smooth” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · lower is better
Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.
Gliding
- Glide speed (post-start)(“GlideSpd” in tables)
- Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better
Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.
- Glide L/D vs field (per leg)(“L/D vs f” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · higher is better
For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot's glide-phase L/D (path distance ÷ net altitude lost while gliding; legs losing under 100 m skipped) is divided by the field's median L/D on that same leg, then averaged over legs. Above 1.0 means the pilot found better glide lines than the field on the same legs.
- Speed-to-fly proxy(“STFproxy” in tables)
- Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better
A speed-to-fly PROXY — no glider polar data exists. Each post-start glide is paired with the climb rate of the next thermal starting within 5 minutes; the value is the mean glide speed flown before stronger-than-median climbs minus the mean before weaker ones. Positive means the pilot speeds up when the next climb justifies it.
- Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)(“TrackEff” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · lower is better
Route distance flown on each completed speed-section leg — full path outside climbs, each climb counted as its net drift — ÷ the leg's optimized distance, averaged with optimized-distance weights. Closer to 1.0 means less deviation from the optimal course line; circling path is excluded, so stopping to climb does not read as bad line choice.
- Dolphin climb fraction(“Dolphin%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Share of post-start altitude gain (10 s-smoothed) made outside detected thermals — climbing on the run instead of stopping to circle. Neutral: the correlation sign shows whether dolphin climbing paid on this day.
Decision-making
- Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)(“Floor%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · higher is better
Finds each pilot's post-start altitude minima (30 s-smoothed, at least 100 m below the surrounding maxima) — the points where they stopped descending and committed to a climb — and reports the median as a percentage of the day's working band. Higher means the pilot keeps more margin in hand before taking a climb.
- Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)(“LowSaves” in tables)
- Measured in count · no expected direction
Counts post-start climbs entered below 15% of the working band that went on to gain at least 300 m — genuine low saves. Zero is a real score for a started pilot; the correlation sign says whether digging out or never getting low is what pays.
- Climbs per 100 km flown(“Clm/100km” in tables)
- Measured in count · lower is better
Post-start thermal count per 100 km of scored flown distance — how often the pilot stops to circle. Each pilot's note adds their mean climb percentile within shared thermals, so few stops can be read together with climb strength.
- Search fraction of the speed section(“Search%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · lower is better
Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.
Gaggle
- Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)(“Affinity” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Share of a pilot's post-start flying time spent inside a detected gaggle (clustered with at least one other racing pilot on the shared time grid). Neutral: the correlation sign says whether sticking with company paid on the day.
- Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)(“Marked%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Share of a pilot's post-start climbs where another pilot was already established (at least 30 s) and still climbing in the same thermal when they joined. High = climbs on others' markers; low = finds their own lift.
- Gaggle departure win rate(“DepartWin” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
When a pilot leaves a gaggle that keeps flying, did leaving pay off? We compare the leaver's arrival at the next turnpoint against the median arrival of the pilots who stayed. Win rate > 50% means their departures beat the gaggle. Only pilots still in the gaggle after the split who reached that turnpoint after it count as stayers.
Race craft
- Start delay (gate to crossing)(“StartDly” in tables)
- Measured in seconds · lower is better
Seconds from the start gate taken (or the pilot’s own crossing on elapsed-time tasks, where the delay is 0 by definition) to the scored SSS crossing. The start table adds crossing altitude and how far behind the leading already-started pilot each start was.
- Time lost on speed-section legs(“LegLost” in tables)
- Measured in seconds · lower is better
For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot’s leg time is compared with the mean of the top-10 (by rank) pilots who completed that leg; only losses count, and the losses are summed. Summed leg times are race time and the reference is defined by rank, so this tracks the outcome by construction — read the waterfall table (every leg against the task winner) for the diagnostic, not the correlation for a finding.
- Time behind the leader at ESS(“Behind” in tables)
- Measured in minutes · lower is better
At each speed-section turnpoint, elapsed race time (reaching minus own start) is compared with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint; the scalar is minutes behind at ESS. Expected to track final rank almost perfectly — this metric is the eval’s sanity check.
- Altitude margin over final glide at ESS(“ESSMargin” in tables)
- Measured in metres · lower is better
Altitude at ESS minus the altitude needed to glide to goal at the sport’s standard glide ratio (S7F §12.3.6: 5.0 HG / 4.0 PG). A big positive margin is altitude — i.e. time — left unspent.
- Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb(“FinalGl” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · no expected direction
At the pilot’s last climb before ESS (or landing): distance to goal divided by height above goal — the glide ratio they committed to. Only counted when that climb ended within 1.5× the final leg’s distance of goal.