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Field analysis

Corryong Cup 2022 — which behaviours separated the field, task by task.

Analysis computed

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Something changed (a track, a penalty, or the task). The analysis below was computed before that change and may shift slightly.

What separated the field, across tasks

A metric that holds its sign and magnitude across every task is telling you about flying. One that swings between tasks is telling you about the weather on those days. Rank 1 is best, so a metric where more is better shows a negative ρ.

MetricTrendT1T2T3T4mean ρmean |ρ|Consistencycomp ρnVerdict
Time behind the leader at ESS1.000.800.720.790.79consistent 0−/2+0.2915within noise
Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band-0.85-0.66-0.43-0.34-0.570.57consistent 2−/0+-0.4935moderate
Gaggle departure win rate-0.83-0.38-0.520.52quiet 1−/0+-0.1817within noise
Dolphin climb fraction0.370.650.340.620.500.50consistent 0−/2+0.2732within noise
Glide speed (post-start)-0.48-0.57-0.18-0.66-0.480.48consistent 3−/0+-0.5436strong
Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs-0.60-0.64-0.13-0.44-0.460.46consistent 3−/0+-0.3535moderate
Climb rate vs field in shared thermals-0.34-0.53-0.67-0.25-0.450.45consistent 2−/0+-0.4839moderate
Search fraction of the speed section0.690.190.180.640.420.42consistent 0−/2+0.4438moderate
Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb0.580.580.160.400.40quiet 0−/1+0.1030within noise
Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)-0.34-0.47-0.36-0.38-0.390.39consistent 2−/0+-0.5538strong
Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)-0.60-0.04-0.25-0.47-0.330.33consistent 2−/0+-0.5738strong
Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)-0.710.11-0.51-0.06-0.310.35consistent 2−/0+-0.3731moderate
Glide L/D vs field (per leg)-0.50-0.39-0.15-0.15-0.300.30quiet 1−/0+-0.7030strong
Climbs per 100 km flown0.70-0.27-0.010.460.210.34quiet 0−/1+0.5028moderate
Time in non-sinking air-0.30-0.20-0.22-0.07-0.200.20quiet-0.3939moderate
Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)-0.450.110.07-0.44-0.190.28consistent 2−/0+-0.2932within noise
Time to core a thermal-0.26-0.25-0.05-0.03-0.150.15quiet-0.2137within noise
Altitude margin over final glide at ESS0.400.80-0.180.150.36quiet0.1515within noise
Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)-0.20-0.56-0.000.22-0.150.25quiet 1−/0+-0.0330within noise
Speed-to-fly proxy0.380.09-0.120.080.100.16quiet-0.0931within noise
Circle fit error relative to circle radius-0.30-0.130.150.11-0.050.17quiet-0.0539within noise
Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal0.250.02-0.02-0.070.050.09quiet-0.1436within noise
Time lost on speed-section legs-0.07-0.410.110.38-0.010.25quiet0.1730within noise
Wind (by hour and by leg)quiet
Climb by hourquiet
Start delay (gate to crossing)quiet

Ranked by |mean ρ| (n-weighted signed mean), so consistent separation leads — flip-flopping tasks cancel there, while mean |ρ| keeps their per-day power visible; a large gap between the two means the payoff depended on the day. Consistency counts only tasks whose |ρ| cleared their noise floor (the filled sparkline dots; hollow = within noise): − means larger values went with better ranks. A split is a finding — the payoff depended on the day — not a defect.

Verdicts: strong |ρ| ≥ 0.5, moderate ≥ 0.3, weak below — but only after clearing the noise floor for that metric's n. within noise means shuffled ranks produce a coefficient that size more than 5% of the time, so it is indistinguishable from luck whatever its magnitude.

Consistency map

The same table as a picture: how much each behaviour separated the field per day (across) against how consistently it pulled one way (up).

Dots on the diagonal separate the field the same way every task; dots far below it are strong per day but flip direction — the payoff depended on the day. The table's mean ρ and mean |ρ| columns are the exact values.

Standings behind these figures

#PilotTasksPoints
1Jon Durand42798
2Mitch Butler42138
3Neale Halsall42113
4Michael Smith42066
5Paul Bissett-Amess42047
6Richard Martin42030
7Steve Docherty41996
8Hughbert Alexander41951
9James Wynd41897
10Jason Kath31815
11Peter Burkitt41695
12Neil Hooke41610
13Troy Horton31533
14Todd Wisewould41505
15Bruce Atkinson41434
16Mick Lamb41398
17Jay Kubeil41131
18Steven Crosby31094
19Ward Gunn31022
20Jason Carman4915
21Donny Gardner4860
22Adrian Connor4853
23Peter Adriaans3825
24Hossain Tefaili4793
25John Harriott3685
26Dustan Hansen4672
27Paul Lawrence4621
28Scotty Ireland3610
29Keith Lavers4599
30Tushar Pokle3591
31Jason Lannstrom4513
32Dean Bayly2479
33James Atkinson4417
34Marcus De Vecchi3386
35Colin Mackie3378
36Randall Clotworthy2366
37Richard Hughes2291
38James McGinty2252
39Pete Bolton2244

Metric glossary

How every metric named above is measured. These are the engine's current method descriptions; each task's own report carries the same prose next to its numbers.

Day profile & wind

Wind (by hour and by leg)(“Wind” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction

Wind estimated from every pilot’s circling (centre drift preferred, ground-speed modulation as fallback), vector-averaged two ways: by hour of day (how the wind built and shifted through the day) and by speed-section leg (the wind each part of the course saw). Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Climb by hour(“Climb/hr” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

All pilots’ thermal climbs bucketed by the hour the climb started (labelled in the competition’s time zone): median and 90th-percentile average climb rate per hour show how the day’s lift developed. Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Climbing

Climb rate vs field in shared thermals(“SharedPct” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

In every thermal two or more pilots used, each use is ranked by average climb rate; a use’s percentile is the share of strictly slower uses. The value is the duration-weighted mean percentile over the pilot’s shared climbs — centering skill isolated from thermal selection.

Time to core a thermal(“Core s” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each thermal of at least 60 s, the seconds from entering until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the pilot’s thermals — how fast they centre the best lift after arriving.

Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal(“ExitDecay” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

For each thermal of at least 90 s, the climb rate over its final 30 s — the "give-up rate". The value is the median: low means the pilot abandons weakening lift early, high means they ride climbs to the end; the correlation sign says which behaviour paid on this task.

Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs(“Accept%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.

Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band(“ExitBand%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

The altitude at which the pilot left each post-start thermal, as a percentage of the day’s working band (0% = field floor, 100% = field ceiling); the value is the median. High means topping out every climb, low means leaving early with climb still available.

Circle fit error relative to circle radius(“Smooth” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.

Gliding

Glide speed (post-start)(“GlideSpd” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.

Glide L/D vs field (per leg)(“L/D vs f” in tables)
Measured in ratio · higher is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot's glide-phase L/D (path distance ÷ net altitude lost while gliding; legs losing under 100 m skipped) is divided by the field's median L/D on that same leg, then averaged over legs. Above 1.0 means the pilot found better glide lines than the field on the same legs.

Speed-to-fly proxy(“STFproxy” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

A speed-to-fly PROXY — no glider polar data exists. Each post-start glide is paired with the climb rate of the next thermal starting within 5 minutes; the value is the mean glide speed flown before stronger-than-median climbs minus the mean before weaker ones. Positive means the pilot speeds up when the next climb justifies it.

Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)(“TrackEff” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Route distance flown on each completed speed-section leg — full path outside climbs, each climb counted as its net drift — ÷ the leg's optimized distance, averaged with optimized-distance weights. Closer to 1.0 means less deviation from the optimal course line; circling path is excluded, so stopping to climb does not read as bad line choice.

Dolphin climb fraction(“Dolphin%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of post-start altitude gain (10 s-smoothed) made outside detected thermals — climbing on the run instead of stopping to circle. Neutral: the correlation sign shows whether dolphin climbing paid on this day.

Decision-making

Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)(“Floor%” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

Finds each pilot's post-start altitude minima (30 s-smoothed, at least 100 m below the surrounding maxima) — the points where they stopped descending and committed to a climb — and reports the median as a percentage of the day's working band. Higher means the pilot keeps more margin in hand before taking a climb.

Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)(“LowSaves” in tables)
Measured in count · no expected direction

Counts post-start climbs entered below 15% of the working band that went on to gain at least 300 m — genuine low saves. Zero is a real score for a started pilot; the correlation sign says whether digging out or never getting low is what pays.

Climbs per 100 km flown(“Clm/100km” in tables)
Measured in count · lower is better

Post-start thermal count per 100 km of scored flown distance — how often the pilot stops to circle. Each pilot's note adds their mean climb percentile within shared thermals, so few stops can be read together with climb strength.

Search fraction of the speed section(“Search%” in tables)
Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Gaggle

Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)(“Affinity” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start flying time spent inside a detected gaggle (clustered with at least one other racing pilot on the shared time grid). Neutral: the correlation sign says whether sticking with company paid on the day.

Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)(“Marked%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start climbs where another pilot was already established (at least 30 s) and still climbing in the same thermal when they joined. High = climbs on others' markers; low = finds their own lift.

Gaggle departure win rate(“DepartWin” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

When a pilot leaves a gaggle that keeps flying, did leaving pay off? We compare the leaver's arrival at the next turnpoint against the median arrival of the pilots who stayed. Win rate > 50% means their departures beat the gaggle. Only pilots still in the gaggle after the split who reached that turnpoint after it count as stayers.

Race craft

Start delay (gate to crossing)(“StartDly” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

Seconds from the start gate taken (or the pilot’s own crossing on elapsed-time tasks, where the delay is 0 by definition) to the scored SSS crossing. The start table adds crossing altitude and how far behind the leading already-started pilot each start was.

Time lost on speed-section legs(“LegLost” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot’s leg time is compared with the mean of the top-10 (by rank) pilots who completed that leg; only losses count, and the losses are summed. Summed leg times are race time and the reference is defined by rank, so this tracks the outcome by construction — read the waterfall table (every leg against the task winner) for the diagnostic, not the correlation for a finding.

Time behind the leader at ESS(“Behind” in tables)
Measured in minutes · lower is better

At each speed-section turnpoint, elapsed race time (reaching minus own start) is compared with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint; the scalar is minutes behind at ESS. Expected to track final rank almost perfectly — this metric is the eval’s sanity check.

Altitude margin over final glide at ESS(“ESSMargin” in tables)
Measured in metres · lower is better

Altitude at ESS minus the altitude needed to glide to goal at the sport’s standard glide ratio (S7F §12.3.6: 5.0 HG / 4.0 PG). A big positive margin is altitude — i.e. time — left unspent.

Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb(“FinalGl” in tables)
Measured in ratio · no expected direction

At the pilot’s last climb before ESS (or landing): distance to goal divided by height above goal — the glide ratio they committed to. Only counted when that climb ended within 1.5× the final leg’s distance of goal.