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Task 2 (Floater)

How the field actually flew this task, and which behaviours separated it.

Analysis computed

Pilots analysed
20
Sampling
every 10s
Shared thermals
11 of 52multi-pilot
Working band
7562301 m
Phase coverage
100%

What separated the field

Each metric's Spearman correlation against the published rank. Rank 1 is best, so a metric where more is better shows a negative ρ. Bigger bars mean the metric separated the field more sharply on this task. Select a row to see that metric plotted against rank.

MetricρStrengthnVerdictFamily
Search fraction of the speed section0.71
19strongDecision-making
Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band-0.66
15strongClimbing
Climb rate vs field in shared thermals-0.48
20moderateClimbing
Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs-0.47
14within noiseClimbing
Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)-0.42
13within noiseGaggle
Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)-0.41
19within noiseGaggle
Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)-0.39
7n too smallDecision-making
Circle fit error relative to circle radius0.26
16within noiseClimbing
Speed-to-fly proxy0.21
7n too smallGliding
Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal0.21
19within noiseClimbing
Glide speed (post-start)-0.17
15within noiseGliding
Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)-0.15
19within noiseDecision-making
Altitude margin over final glide at ESS0.14
7n too smallRace craft
Dolphin climb fraction0.13
14within noiseGliding
Glide L/D vs field (per leg)0.10
14within noiseGliding
Start delay (gate to crossing)-0.06
19within noiseRace craft
Time in non-sinking air-0.05
20within noiseDay profile & wind
Time to core a thermal-0.04
19within noiseClimbing
Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)0.03
15within noiseGliding

Verdicts: strong |ρ| ≥ 0.5, moderate ≥ 0.3, weak below — but only after clearing the noise floor for that metric's n. within noise means shuffled ranks produce a coefficient that size more than 5% of the time, so it is indistinguishable from luck whatever its magnitude.

With 19 metrics ranked on this one task, the top rows are partly selection luck — trust the metrics that repeat across tasks in the competition-level analysis.

3 metrics correlated fewer than 8 pilots — treat those rows as indicative only.

Search fraction of the speed section

Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Each dot is a pilot: across is the metric's value, up is a better rank. ρ = 0.71 (strong, n = 19). Less is expected to be better here, and it was: top ranks gather to the left. 1 pilot has no value and is not plotted.
  • Speed-section phase shares, field p25/median/p75: climb 14/20/32% · glide 18/33/48% · search 28/41/57%

Outcome checks

These metrics are derived from the race outcome itself, so they correlate with rank by construction — a low |ρ| here questions the eval, not the flying. Their per-pilot diagnostics stay in the Race craft section below.

MetricρStrengthnVerdict
Time behind the leader at ESS1.00
7n too small
Time lost on speed-section legs-0.11
15within noise

The whole field at a glance

1. James Atkinson
2. Anthony Meechan
3. Jakota Cummings
4. Dustan Hansen
5. Donny Gardner
6. Mark Tyminski
7. Andy Schmidt
8. Jason Lannstrom
9. Gordon Bishop
10. Dean Bayly
11. Amber Tsai
12. Patrick Honey
13. Mike Estcourt
14. Shane Duncan
15. Curtis Greenwood
16. Nicole Forrester
17. Brett Huggan
18. James McGinty
19. Christopher Sutton
20. Mark Wallace
Pilots in rank order against every metric: darker = a better percentile in this field (empty = not applicable). Column order follows the family sections below, which carry the exact values. † No good/bad direction — shade is position in the field, not quality.

Pilot style clusters

Groups are flying style, not score — the rank spread on each shows where that style did and did not pay. Each group is named after its strongest signature; ★ marks the pilot most typical of their group.

Group ACommitted racers

4 pilots · ranks 17 · median 3.5 · middle half 2.54.8

  • LowSearch fraction of the speed section group median P8 in this field (19 percent) · usually a strength
  • HighTime to core a thermal group median P86 in this field (72 seconds) · usually costly
  • LowDolphin climb fraction group median P19 in this field (5 percent)
  • HighShare of circling encounters accepted as climbs group median P77 in this field (76 percent)
  • 1. James Atkinson
  • 3. Jakota Cummings (most typical of this group)
  • 4. Dustan Hansen
  • 7. Andy Schmidt

Group BDolphin flyers

3 pilots · ranks 514 · median 6 · middle half 5.510

  • HighDolphin climb fraction group median P92 in this field (26 percent)
  • HighGlide L/D vs field (per leg) group median P92 in this field (1.38 ratio) · usually a strength
  • HighStart delay (gate to crossing) group median P89 in this field (10464 seconds) · usually costly
  • HighThermal departure altitude as % of the working band group median P86 in this field (84 percent)
  • 5. Donny Gardner (most typical of this group)
  • 6. Mark Tyminski
  • 14. Shane Duncan

Group CMarker followers

3 pilots · ranks 812 · median 9 · middle half 8.510.5

  • HighMarker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb) group median P96 in this field (64 percent)
  • LowTrack efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance) group median P7 in this field (1.19 ratio) · usually a strength
  • HighClimb rate vs field in shared thermals group median P89 in this field (79 percent) · usually a strength
  • LowThermal departure altitude as % of the working band group median P21 in this field (21 percent)
  • 8. Jason Lannstrom
  • 9. Gordon Bishop (most typical of this group)
  • 12. Patrick Honey

Group DSlow gliders

3 pilots · ranks 211 · median 10 · middle half 610.5

  • LowGlide speed (post-start) group median P7 in this field (34.4 kilometres per hour) · usually costly
  • LowGlide L/D vs field (per leg) group median P8 in this field (0.87 ratio) · usually costly
  • HighLow saves (climbs from the bottom of the band) group median P89 in this field (1.0 count)
  • HighGaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle) group median P89 in this field (29 percent)
  • 2. Anthony Meechan
  • 10. Dean Bayly (most typical of this group)
  • 11. Amber Tsai

Group ELift keepers

2 pilots · ranks 1315 · median 14 · middle half 13.514.5

  • HighTime in non-sinking air group median P97 in this field (65 percent)
  • LowThermal departure altitude as % of the working band group median P4 in this field (-2 percent)
  • LowClimb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal group median P11 in this field (1.0 metres per second)
  • LowClimb rate vs field in shared thermals group median P13 in this field (50 percent) · usually costly
  • 13. Mike Estcourt (most typical of this group)
  • 15. Curtis Greenwood

Not clustered: 16. Nicole Forrester — only 9 of 19 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 17. Brett Huggan — only 9 of 19 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 18. James McGinty — only 8 of 19 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 19. Christopher Sutton — only 8 of 19 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 20. Mark Wallace — only 2 of 19 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%).

Pilots are grouped by flying style, not by score: every behavioural metric is rank-transformed to a within-field percentile, pilots are compared by the mean percentile gap over the metrics both have (missing values are never imputed), and Ward-linkage agglomeration forms the groups, with the number of groups chosen by the best mean silhouette. Each group is annotated with the GAP-rank spread of its members — where a style did and did not pay. Here: 15 pilots on 19 behavioural metrics formed 5 groups (k searched 25); mean silhouette 0.25 — near 0 means soft group boundaries, near 1 tight well-separated groups.

The metrics in detail

strongest |ρ| 0.05

strongest |ρ| 0.66

#PilotSharedPctCore sExitDecayAccept%ExitBand%Smooth
1James Atkinson60 (6 shared climbs)70 (10 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.4 (10 climbs ≥ 90 s)78 (7/9 circling bouts led to climbs)51 (mean on-course altitude 40% of band) (7 circles, 0% left)
2Anthony Meechan71 (45 shared climbs)24 (14 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.6 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)86 (6/7 circling bouts led to climbs)66 (mean on-course altitude 53% of band)0.16 (127 circles, 53% left)
3Jakota Cummings64 (3 shared climbs)73 (8 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)80 (4/5 circling bouts led to climbs)111 (mean on-course altitude 64% of band)0.15 (84 circles, 37% left)
4Dustan Hansen70 (11 shared climbs)56 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)2.3 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s)67 (2/3 circling bouts led to climbs)80 (mean on-course altitude 61% of band)0.19 (42 circles, 21% left)
5Donny Gardner60 (15 shared climbs)42 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)33 (2/6 circling bouts led to climbs)84 (mean on-course altitude 53% of band)0.20 (60 circles, 18% left)
6Mark Tyminski63 (12 shared climbs)23 (4 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.0 (3 climbs ≥ 90 s)40 (2/5 circling bouts led to climbs)93 (mean on-course altitude 67% of band)0.12 (106 circles, 3% left)
7Andy Schmidt83 (3 shared climbs)82 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)75 (3/4 circling bouts led to climbs)74 (mean on-course altitude 45% of band)0.20 (73 circles, 4% left)
8Jason Lannstrom80 (17 shared climbs)40 (5 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s)57 (4/7 circling bouts led to climbs)17 (mean on-course altitude 30% of band)0.22 (64 circles, 33% left)
9Gordon Bishop70 (20 shared climbs)67 (7 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)50 (2/4 circling bouts led to climbs)21 (mean on-course altitude 26% of band)0.18 (126 circles, 0% left)
10Dean Bayly74 (18 shared climbs)35 (9 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)75 (3/4 circling bouts led to climbs)44 (mean on-course altitude 23% of band)0.18 (99 circles, 0% left)
11Amber Tsai74 (15 shared climbs)61 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)75 (3/4 circling bouts led to climbs)69 (mean on-course altitude 34% of band)0.21 (81 circles, 28% left)
12Patrick Honey79 (8 shared climbs)35 (7 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)25 (1/4 circling bouts led to climbs)42 (mean on-course altitude 27% of band)0.16 (60 circles, 3% left)
13Mike Estcourt52 (15 shared climbs)53 (8 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)57 (4/7 circling bouts led to climbs)0 (mean on-course altitude 11% of band)0.19 (119 circles, 24% left)
14Shane Duncan63 (9 shared climbs)36 (15 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s)60 (3/5 circling bouts led to climbs)51 (mean on-course altitude 36% of band)0.19 (97 circles, 0% left)
15Curtis Greenwood48 (7 shared climbs)67 (3 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.9 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)-3 (mean on-course altitude -1% of band)0.30 (76 circles, 57% left)
16Nicole Forrester39 (11 shared climbs)42 (5 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)0.16 (62 circles, 10% left)
17Brett Huggan58 (21 shared climbs)45 (5 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (3 climbs ≥ 90 s)0.20 (47 circles, 0% left)
18James McGinty64 (2 shared climbs)163 (1 climb ≥ 60 s)2.5 (1 climb ≥ 90 s) (4 circles, 0% left)
19Christopher Sutton59 (3 shared climbs)34 (1 climb ≥ 60 s)1.3 (1 climb ≥ 90 s) (8 circles, 100% left)
20Mark Wallace9 (1 shared climb) (4 circles, 0% left)

Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs

Measured in percent · no expected direction

Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.

Acceptance by hour

HourMedian accepted (%)pilots
1001
5011
405
505
603

Median per-pilot acceptance %, bucketed by the hour (competition time zone).

Circle fit error relative to circle radius

Measured in ratio · lower is better

Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.

Turn direction across the field: 19% left (1346 circles).

strongest |ρ| 0.21

strongest |ρ| 0.71

#PilotFloor%LowSavesSearch%
1James Atkinson35 (6 dips, lowest 7% of band)0.021
2Anthony Meechan18 (7 dips, lowest -49% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -49% of band)33
3Jakota Cummings0.019
4Dustan Hansen0.018
5Donny Gardner47 (2 dips, lowest 20% of band)0.043
6Mark Tyminski0.029
7Andy Schmidt19 (2 dips, lowest 7% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 6% of band)16
8Jason Lannstrom4 (4 dips, lowest 3% of band)0.051
9Gordon Bishop0.038
10Dean Bayly1.0 (deepest save from 10% of band)59
11Amber Tsai37 (3 dips, lowest -15% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -14% of band)55
12Patrick Honey0.041
13Mike Estcourt0 (4 dips, lowest -13% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 5% of band)47
14Shane Duncan0.026
15Curtis Greenwood0.078
16Nicole Forrester0.070
17Brett Huggan0.090
18James McGinty0.041
19Christopher Sutton0.0100
20Mark Wallace

Search fraction of the speed section

Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Speed-section phase shares, field p25/median/p75: climb 14/20/32% · glide 18/33/48% · search 28/41/57%

strongest |ρ| 0.42

strongest |ρ| 0.14

Metric glossary

How every metric on this page is measured. On screen, the ⓘ next to a metric opens the same description in place; in print, this section is the reference for all of them.

Day profile & wind

Wind (by hour and by leg)(“Wind” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction

Wind estimated from every pilot’s circling (centre drift preferred, ground-speed modulation as fallback), vector-averaged two ways: by hour of day (how the wind built and shifted through the day) and by speed-section leg (the wind each part of the course saw). Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Climb by hour(“Climb/hr” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

All pilots’ thermal climbs bucketed by the hour the climb started (labelled in the competition’s time zone): median and 90th-percentile average climb rate per hour show how the day’s lift developed. Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Time in non-sinking air(“NonSink%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot’s airborne time (on the shared grid) spent in non-sinking air — 30 s-smoothed vario at or above −0.5 m/s. Reflects how much of the flight met usable air: when flown, where the pilot steered, and how the flight ended all feed it, so the correlation sign is the finding. The timing table relates the day’s best climbs window to when the field actually launched.

Climbing

Climb rate vs field in shared thermals(“SharedPct” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

In every thermal two or more pilots used, each use is ranked by average climb rate; a use’s percentile is the share of strictly slower uses. The value is the duration-weighted mean percentile over the pilot’s shared climbs — centering skill isolated from thermal selection.

Time to core a thermal(“Core s” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each thermal of at least 60 s, the seconds from entering until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the pilot’s thermals — how fast they centre the best lift after arriving.

Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal(“ExitDecay” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

For each thermal of at least 90 s, the climb rate over its final 30 s — the "give-up rate". The value is the median: low means the pilot abandons weakening lift early, high means they ride climbs to the end; the correlation sign says which behaviour paid on this task.

Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs(“Accept%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.

Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band(“ExitBand%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

The altitude at which the pilot left each post-start thermal, as a percentage of the day’s working band (0% = field floor, 100% = field ceiling); the value is the median. High means topping out every climb, low means leaving early with climb still available.

Circle fit error relative to circle radius(“Smooth” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.

Gliding

Glide speed (post-start)(“GlideSpd” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.

Glide L/D vs field (per leg)(“L/D vs f” in tables)
Measured in ratio · higher is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot's glide-phase L/D (path distance ÷ net altitude lost while gliding; legs losing under 100 m skipped) is divided by the field's median L/D on that same leg, then averaged over legs. Above 1.0 means the pilot found better glide lines than the field on the same legs.

Speed-to-fly proxy(“STFproxy” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

A speed-to-fly PROXY — no glider polar data exists. Each post-start glide is paired with the climb rate of the next thermal starting within 5 minutes; the value is the mean glide speed flown before stronger-than-median climbs minus the mean before weaker ones. Positive means the pilot speeds up when the next climb justifies it.

Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)(“TrackEff” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Route distance flown on each completed speed-section leg — full path outside climbs, each climb counted as its net drift — ÷ the leg's optimized distance, averaged with optimized-distance weights. Closer to 1.0 means less deviation from the optimal course line; circling path is excluded, so stopping to climb does not read as bad line choice.

Dolphin climb fraction(“Dolphin%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of post-start altitude gain (10 s-smoothed) made outside detected thermals — climbing on the run instead of stopping to circle. Neutral: the correlation sign shows whether dolphin climbing paid on this day.

Decision-making

Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)(“Floor%” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

Finds each pilot's post-start altitude minima (30 s-smoothed, at least 100 m below the surrounding maxima) — the points where they stopped descending and committed to a climb — and reports the median as a percentage of the day's working band. Higher means the pilot keeps more margin in hand before taking a climb.

Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)(“LowSaves” in tables)
Measured in count · no expected direction

Counts post-start climbs entered below 15% of the working band that went on to gain at least 300 m — genuine low saves. Zero is a real score for a started pilot; the correlation sign says whether digging out or never getting low is what pays.

Climbs per 100 km flown(“Clm/100km” in tables)
Measured in count · lower is better

Post-start thermal count per 100 km of scored flown distance — how often the pilot stops to circle. Each pilot's note adds their mean climb percentile within shared thermals, so few stops can be read together with climb strength.

Search fraction of the speed section(“Search%” in tables)
Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Gaggle

Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)(“Affinity” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start flying time spent inside a detected gaggle (clustered with at least one other racing pilot on the shared time grid). Neutral: the correlation sign says whether sticking with company paid on the day.

Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)(“Marked%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start climbs where another pilot was already established (at least 30 s) and still climbing in the same thermal when they joined. High = climbs on others' markers; low = finds their own lift.

Gaggle departure win rate(“DepartWin” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

When a pilot leaves a gaggle that keeps flying, did leaving pay off? We compare the leaver's arrival at the next turnpoint against the median arrival of the pilots who stayed. Win rate > 50% means their departures beat the gaggle. Only pilots still in the gaggle after the split who reached that turnpoint after it count as stayers.

Race craft

Start delay (gate to crossing)(“StartDly” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

Seconds from the start gate taken (or the pilot’s own crossing on elapsed-time tasks, where the delay is 0 by definition) to the scored SSS crossing. The start table adds crossing altitude and how far behind the leading already-started pilot each start was.

Time lost on speed-section legs(“LegLost” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot’s leg time is compared with the mean of the top-10 (by rank) pilots who completed that leg; only losses count, and the losses are summed. Summed leg times are race time and the reference is defined by rank, so this tracks the outcome by construction — read the waterfall table (every leg against the task winner) for the diagnostic, not the correlation for a finding.

Time behind the leader at ESS(“Behind” in tables)
Measured in minutes · lower is better

At each speed-section turnpoint, elapsed race time (reaching minus own start) is compared with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint; the scalar is minutes behind at ESS. Expected to track final rank almost perfectly — this metric is the eval’s sanity check.

Altitude margin over final glide at ESS(“ESSMargin” in tables)
Measured in metres · lower is better

Altitude at ESS minus the altitude needed to glide to goal at the sport’s standard glide ratio (S7F §12.3.6: 5.0 HG / 4.0 PG). A big positive margin is altitude — i.e. time — left unspent.

Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb(“FinalGl” in tables)
Measured in ratio · no expected direction

At the pilot’s last climb before ESS (or landing): distance to goal divided by height above goal — the glide ratio they committed to. Only counted when that climb ended within 1.5× the final leg’s distance of goal.