Task 1 (Floater)
How the field actually flew this task, and which behaviours separated it.
Analysis computed
- Pilots analysed
- 7
- Sampling
- every 10s
- Shared thermals
- 2 of 31multi-pilot
- Working band
- 736–2458 m
- Phase coverage
- 100%
What separated the field
Each metric's Spearman correlation against the published rank. Rank 1 is best, so a metric where more is better shows a negative ρ. Bigger bars mean the metric separated the field more sharply on this task. Select a row to see that metric plotted against rank.
| Metric | ρ | Strength | n | Verdict | Family |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs | -1.00 | 3 | n too small | Climbing | |
| Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions) | 1.00 | 3 | n too small | Decision-making | |
| Start delay (gate to crossing) | 0.80 | 4 | n too small | Race craft | |
| Time to core a thermal | 0.54 | 7 | n too small | Climbing | |
| Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band | 0.50 | 3 | n too small | Climbing | |
| Glide speed (post-start) | -0.50 | 3 | n too small | Gliding | |
| Speed-to-fly proxy | -0.50 | 3 | n too small | Gliding | |
| Dolphin climb fraction | -0.50 | 3 | n too small | Gliding | |
| Search fraction of the speed section | -0.40 | 4 | n too small | Decision-making | |
| Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band) | 0.26 | 4 | n too small | Decision-making | |
| Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal | 0.21 | 7 | n too small | Climbing | |
| Climb rate vs field in shared thermals | 0.20 | 4 | n too small | Climbing | |
| Circle fit error relative to circle radius | -0.20 | 5 | n too small | Climbing | |
| Time in non-sinking air | 0.14 | 7 | n too small | Day profile & wind |
Verdicts: strong |ρ| ≥ 0.5, moderate ≥ 0.3, weak below — but only after clearing the noise floor for that metric's n. within noise means shuffled ranks produce a coefficient that size more than 5% of the time, so it is indistinguishable from luck whatever its magnitude.
With 14 metrics ranked on this one task, the top rows are partly selection luck — trust the metrics that repeat across tasks in the competition-level analysis.
14 metrics correlated fewer than 8 pilots — treat those rows as indicative only.
Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs
Measured in percent · no expected direction
Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.
The whole field at a glance
Pilot style clusters
Fewer than 8 pilots have enough metric coverage to compare, so no style groups are formed for this field.
The metrics in detail
strongest |ρ| 0.14
strongest |ρ| 1.00
| # | Pilot | SharedPct | Core s | ExitDecay | Accept% | ExitBand% | Smooth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jakota Cummings | 60 (10 shared climbs) | 2 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s) | 1.5 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s) | 67 (4/6 circling bouts led to climbs) | 25 (mean on-course altitude 17% of band) | 0.25 (82 circles, 98% left) |
| 2 | Shane Duncan | — | 48 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s) | 1.8 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s) | 60 (3/5 circling bouts led to climbs) | 82 (mean on-course altitude 50% of band) | 0.10 (59 circles, 27% left) |
| 3 | James Atkinson | — | 75 (1 climb ≥ 60 s) | 0.3 (1 climb ≥ 90 s) | — | — | — (1 circles, 100% left) |
| 4 | Dean Bayly | — | 53 (2 climbs ≥ 60 s) | 1.3 (1 climb ≥ 90 s) | — | — | 0.07 (21 circles, 100% left) |
| 5 | Christopher Sutton | 79 (3 shared climbs) | 62 (1 climb ≥ 60 s) | 1.9 (1 climb ≥ 90 s) | — | — | — (7 circles, 0% left) |
| 6 | Amber Tsai | 78 (6 shared climbs) | 34 (13 climbs ≥ 60 s) | 1.2 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s) | 43 (3/7 circling bouts led to climbs) | 82 (mean on-course altitude 53% of band) | 0.18 (170 circles, 42% left) |
| 7 | Mark Tyminski | 67 (1 shared climb) | 93 (2 climbs ≥ 60 s) | 1.8 (1 climb ≥ 90 s) | — | — | 0.15 (24 circles, 4% left) |
Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs
Measured in percent · no expected direction
Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.
Acceptance by hour
| Hour | Median accepted (%) | pilots |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | 2 | |
| 38 | 2 | |
| 50 | 2 |
Median per-pilot acceptance %, bucketed by the hour (competition time zone).
Circle fit error relative to circle radius
Measured in ratio · lower is better
Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.
Turn direction across the field: 52% left (364 circles).
strongest |ρ| 0.50
strongest |ρ| 1.00
| # | Pilot | Floor% | LowSaves | Search% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jakota Cummings | 9 (2 dips, lowest -4% of band) | 0.0 | 63 |
| 2 | Shane Duncan | 27 (3 dips, lowest 25% of band) | 0.0 | 34 |
| 3 | James Atkinson | — | — | — |
| 4 | Dean Bayly | — | — | — |
| 5 | Christopher Sutton | — | — | — |
| 6 | Amber Tsai | 78 (5 dips, lowest -8% of band) | 1.0 (deepest save from -6% of band) | 65 |
| 7 | Mark Tyminski | — | 0.0 | 0 |
Search fraction of the speed section
Measured in percent · lower is better
Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.
Speed-section phase shares, field p25/median/p75: climb 18/27/30% · glide 10/25/52% · search 25/48/63%
strongest |ρ| 0.80
| # | Pilot | StartDly | LegLost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jakota Cummings | 3156 | 208 |
| 2 | Shane Duncan | 6408 | 0 |
| 3 | James Atkinson | — | — |
| 4 | Dean Bayly | — | — |
| 5 | Christopher Sutton | — | — |
| 6 | Amber Tsai | 3596 | — |
| 7 | Mark Tyminski | 17602 | — |
Start delay (gate to crossing)
Measured in seconds · lower is better
Seconds from the start gate taken (or the pilot’s own crossing on elapsed-time tasks, where the delay is 0 by definition) to the scored SSS crossing. The start table adds crossing altitude and how far behind the leading already-started pilot each start was.
Start execution
| Pilot | Delay | Alt m | Band % | Behind km |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakota Cummings | 52:36 | 1408 | 39 | 0.0 |
| Shane Duncan | 106:48 | 1374 | 37 | 0.0 |
| Amber Tsai | 59:56 | 2333 | 93 | 5.0 |
| Mark Tyminski | 293:22 | 280 | -26 | 0.0 |
Delay = gate taken → SSS crossing. Behind km = extra distance to the next turnpoint vs the furthest-along already-started pilot at the moment of this start (time grid).
Time lost on speed-section legs
Measured in seconds · lower is better
For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot’s leg time is compared with the mean of the top-10 (by rank) pilots who completed that leg; only losses count, and the losses are summed. Summed leg times are race time and the reference is defined by rank, so this tracks the outcome by construction — read the waterfall table (every leg against the task winner) for the diagnostic, not the correlation for a finding.
Leg waterfall — leg time vs the task winner
| Pilot | SSS→KANGCK | KANGCK→TINTAL | TINTAL→ESS | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakota Cummings | +0:00 | — | — | +0:00 |
| Shane Duncan | -6:57 | — | — | -6:57 |
Cells: this pilot’s leg time minus the winner’s (+ = slower than the winner, − = faster); — = leg not completed by pilot or winner.
The scalar metric instead sums losses vs the mean of the top 7 pilots who completed each leg (legs flown faster than that reference contribute 0).
Time behind the leader at ESS
Measured in minutes · lower is better
At each speed-section turnpoint, elapsed race time (reaching minus own start) is compared with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint; the scalar is minutes behind at ESS. Expected to track final rank almost perfectly — this metric is the eval’s sanity check.
Horserace — minutes behind the leader at each turnpoint
| Pilot | ELLIOT | KANGCK | TINTAL | NCORGL | NCORGL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakota Cummings | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | — |
| Shane Duncan | 54.2 | 47.3 | — | — | — |
| Amber Tsai | 7.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Mark Tyminski | 240.8 | — | — | — | — |
Elapsed race time (from each pilot’s own start) minus the fastest elapsed time to that turnpoint; — = turnpoint not reached.
Metric glossary
How every metric on this page is measured. On screen, the ⓘ next to a metric opens the same description in place; in print, this section is the reference for all of them.
Day profile & wind
- Wind (by hour and by leg)(“Wind” in tables)
- Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction
Wind estimated from every pilot’s circling (centre drift preferred, ground-speed modulation as fallback), vector-averaged two ways: by hour of day (how the wind built and shifted through the day) and by speed-section leg (the wind each part of the course saw). Field-level only — no per-pilot value.
- Climb by hour(“Climb/hr” in tables)
- Measured in metres per second · no expected direction
All pilots’ thermal climbs bucketed by the hour the climb started (labelled in the competition’s time zone): median and 90th-percentile average climb rate per hour show how the day’s lift developed. Field-level only — no per-pilot value.
- Time in non-sinking air(“NonSink%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Share of a pilot’s airborne time (on the shared grid) spent in non-sinking air — 30 s-smoothed vario at or above −0.5 m/s. Reflects how much of the flight met usable air: when flown, where the pilot steered, and how the flight ended all feed it, so the correlation sign is the finding. The timing table relates the day’s best climbs window to when the field actually launched.
Climbing
- Time to core a thermal(“Core s” in tables)
- Measured in seconds · lower is better
For each thermal of at least 60 s, the seconds from entering until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the pilot’s thermals — how fast they centre the best lift after arriving.
- Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal(“ExitDecay” in tables)
- Measured in metres per second · no expected direction
For each thermal of at least 90 s, the climb rate over its final 30 s — the "give-up rate". The value is the median: low means the pilot abandons weakening lift early, high means they ride climbs to the end; the correlation sign says which behaviour paid on this task.
- Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs(“Accept%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.
- Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band(“ExitBand%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
The altitude at which the pilot left each post-start thermal, as a percentage of the day’s working band (0% = field floor, 100% = field ceiling); the value is the median. High means topping out every climb, low means leaving early with climb still available.
- Circle fit error relative to circle radius(“Smooth” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · lower is better
Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.
Gliding
- Glide speed (post-start)(“GlideSpd” in tables)
- Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better
Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.
- Glide L/D vs field (per leg)(“L/D vs f” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · higher is better
For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot's glide-phase L/D (path distance ÷ net altitude lost while gliding; legs losing under 100 m skipped) is divided by the field's median L/D on that same leg, then averaged over legs. Above 1.0 means the pilot found better glide lines than the field on the same legs.
- Speed-to-fly proxy(“STFproxy” in tables)
- Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better
A speed-to-fly PROXY — no glider polar data exists. Each post-start glide is paired with the climb rate of the next thermal starting within 5 minutes; the value is the mean glide speed flown before stronger-than-median climbs minus the mean before weaker ones. Positive means the pilot speeds up when the next climb justifies it.
- Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)(“TrackEff” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · lower is better
Route distance flown on each completed speed-section leg — full path outside climbs, each climb counted as its net drift — ÷ the leg's optimized distance, averaged with optimized-distance weights. Closer to 1.0 means less deviation from the optimal course line; circling path is excluded, so stopping to climb does not read as bad line choice.
- Dolphin climb fraction(“Dolphin%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Share of post-start altitude gain (10 s-smoothed) made outside detected thermals — climbing on the run instead of stopping to circle. Neutral: the correlation sign shows whether dolphin climbing paid on this day.
Decision-making
- Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)(“Floor%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · higher is better
Finds each pilot's post-start altitude minima (30 s-smoothed, at least 100 m below the surrounding maxima) — the points where they stopped descending and committed to a climb — and reports the median as a percentage of the day's working band. Higher means the pilot keeps more margin in hand before taking a climb.
- Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)(“LowSaves” in tables)
- Measured in count · no expected direction
Counts post-start climbs entered below 15% of the working band that went on to gain at least 300 m — genuine low saves. Zero is a real score for a started pilot; the correlation sign says whether digging out or never getting low is what pays.
- Climbs per 100 km flown(“Clm/100km” in tables)
- Measured in count · lower is better
Post-start thermal count per 100 km of scored flown distance — how often the pilot stops to circle. Each pilot's note adds their mean climb percentile within shared thermals, so few stops can be read together with climb strength.
- Search fraction of the speed section(“Search%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · lower is better
Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.
Gaggle
- Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)(“Affinity” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Share of a pilot's post-start flying time spent inside a detected gaggle (clustered with at least one other racing pilot on the shared time grid). Neutral: the correlation sign says whether sticking with company paid on the day.
- Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)(“Marked%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Share of a pilot's post-start climbs where another pilot was already established (at least 30 s) and still climbing in the same thermal when they joined. High = climbs on others' markers; low = finds their own lift.
- Gaggle departure win rate(“DepartWin” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
When a pilot leaves a gaggle that keeps flying, did leaving pay off? We compare the leaver's arrival at the next turnpoint against the median arrival of the pilots who stayed. Win rate > 50% means their departures beat the gaggle. Only pilots still in the gaggle after the split who reached that turnpoint after it count as stayers.
Race craft
- Start delay (gate to crossing)(“StartDly” in tables)
- Measured in seconds · lower is better
Seconds from the start gate taken (or the pilot’s own crossing on elapsed-time tasks, where the delay is 0 by definition) to the scored SSS crossing. The start table adds crossing altitude and how far behind the leading already-started pilot each start was.
- Time lost on speed-section legs(“LegLost” in tables)
- Measured in seconds · lower is better
For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot’s leg time is compared with the mean of the top-10 (by rank) pilots who completed that leg; only losses count, and the losses are summed. Summed leg times are race time and the reference is defined by rank, so this tracks the outcome by construction — read the waterfall table (every leg against the task winner) for the diagnostic, not the correlation for a finding.
- Time behind the leader at ESS(“Behind” in tables)
- Measured in minutes · lower is better
At each speed-section turnpoint, elapsed race time (reaching minus own start) is compared with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint; the scalar is minutes behind at ESS. Expected to track final rank almost perfectly — this metric is the eval’s sanity check.
- Altitude margin over final glide at ESS(“ESSMargin” in tables)
- Measured in metres · lower is better
Altitude at ESS minus the altitude needed to glide to goal at the sport’s standard glide ratio (S7F §12.3.6: 5.0 HG / 4.0 PG). A big positive margin is altitude — i.e. time — left unspent.
- Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb(“FinalGl” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · no expected direction
At the pilot’s last climb before ESS (or landing): distance to goal divided by height above goal — the glide ratio they committed to. Only counted when that climb ended within 1.5× the final leg’s distance of goal.