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Task 1 (Floater)

How the field actually flew this task, and which behaviours separated it.

Analysis computed

Pilots analysed
7
Sampling
every 10s
Shared thermals
2 of 31multi-pilot
Working band
7362458 m
Phase coverage
100%

What separated the field

Each metric's Spearman correlation against the published rank. Rank 1 is best, so a metric where more is better shows a negative ρ. Bigger bars mean the metric separated the field more sharply on this task. Select a row to see that metric plotted against rank.

MetricρStrengthnVerdictFamily
Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs-1.00
3n too smallClimbing
Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)1.00
3n too smallDecision-making
Start delay (gate to crossing)0.80
4n too smallRace craft
Time to core a thermal0.54
7n too smallClimbing
Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band0.50
3n too smallClimbing
Glide speed (post-start)-0.50
3n too smallGliding
Speed-to-fly proxy-0.50
3n too smallGliding
Dolphin climb fraction-0.50
3n too smallGliding
Search fraction of the speed section-0.40
4n too smallDecision-making
Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)0.26
4n too smallDecision-making
Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal0.21
7n too smallClimbing
Climb rate vs field in shared thermals0.20
4n too smallClimbing
Circle fit error relative to circle radius-0.20
5n too smallClimbing
Time in non-sinking air0.14
7n too smallDay profile & wind

Verdicts: strong |ρ| ≥ 0.5, moderate ≥ 0.3, weak below — but only after clearing the noise floor for that metric's n. within noise means shuffled ranks produce a coefficient that size more than 5% of the time, so it is indistinguishable from luck whatever its magnitude.

With 14 metrics ranked on this one task, the top rows are partly selection luck — trust the metrics that repeat across tasks in the competition-level analysis.

14 metrics correlated fewer than 8 pilots — treat those rows as indicative only.

Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs

Measured in percent · no expected direction

Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.

Each dot is a pilot: across is the metric's value, up is a better rank. ρ = -1.00 (n too small, n = 3). No expected direction — the sign is the finding: larger values went with better ranks here. 4 pilots have no value and are not plotted, including the #3 ranked pilot.

The whole field at a glance

1. Jakota Cummings
2. Shane Duncan
3. James Atkinson
4. Dean Bayly
5. Christopher Sutton
6. Amber Tsai
7. Mark Tyminski
Pilots in rank order against every metric: darker = a better percentile in this field (empty = not applicable). Column order follows the family sections below, which carry the exact values. † No good/bad direction — shade is position in the field, not quality.

Pilot style clusters

Fewer than 8 pilots have enough metric coverage to compare, so no style groups are formed for this field.

The metrics in detail

strongest |ρ| 0.14

strongest |ρ| 1.00

#PilotSharedPctCore sExitDecayAccept%ExitBand%Smooth
1Jakota Cummings60 (10 shared climbs)2 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s)67 (4/6 circling bouts led to climbs)25 (mean on-course altitude 17% of band)0.25 (82 circles, 98% left)
2Shane Duncan48 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.8 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s)60 (3/5 circling bouts led to climbs)82 (mean on-course altitude 50% of band)0.10 (59 circles, 27% left)
3James Atkinson75 (1 climb ≥ 60 s)0.3 (1 climb ≥ 90 s) (1 circles, 100% left)
4Dean Bayly53 (2 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (1 climb ≥ 90 s)0.07 (21 circles, 100% left)
5Christopher Sutton79 (3 shared climbs)62 (1 climb ≥ 60 s)1.9 (1 climb ≥ 90 s) (7 circles, 0% left)
6Amber Tsai78 (6 shared climbs)34 (13 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)43 (3/7 circling bouts led to climbs)82 (mean on-course altitude 53% of band)0.18 (170 circles, 42% left)
7Mark Tyminski67 (1 shared climb)93 (2 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.8 (1 climb ≥ 90 s)0.15 (24 circles, 4% left)

Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs

Measured in percent · no expected direction

Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.

Acceptance by hour

HourMedian accepted (%)pilots
672
382
502

Median per-pilot acceptance %, bucketed by the hour (competition time zone).

Circle fit error relative to circle radius

Measured in ratio · lower is better

Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.

Turn direction across the field: 52% left (364 circles).

strongest |ρ| 0.50

strongest |ρ| 1.00

#PilotFloor%LowSavesSearch%
1Jakota Cummings9 (2 dips, lowest -4% of band)0.063
2Shane Duncan27 (3 dips, lowest 25% of band)0.034
3James Atkinson
4Dean Bayly
5Christopher Sutton
6Amber Tsai78 (5 dips, lowest -8% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -6% of band)65
7Mark Tyminski0.00

Search fraction of the speed section

Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Speed-section phase shares, field p25/median/p75: climb 18/27/30% · glide 10/25/52% · search 25/48/63%

strongest |ρ| 0.80

#PilotStartDlyLegLost
1Jakota Cummings3156208
2Shane Duncan64080
3James Atkinson
4Dean Bayly
5Christopher Sutton
6Amber Tsai3596
7Mark Tyminski17602

Start delay (gate to crossing)

Measured in seconds · lower is better

Seconds from the start gate taken (or the pilot’s own crossing on elapsed-time tasks, where the delay is 0 by definition) to the scored SSS crossing. The start table adds crossing altitude and how far behind the leading already-started pilot each start was.

Start execution

PilotDelayAlt mBand %Behind km
Jakota Cummings52:361408390.0
Shane Duncan106:481374370.0
Amber Tsai59:562333935.0
Mark Tyminski293:22280-260.0

Delay = gate taken → SSS crossing. Behind km = extra distance to the next turnpoint vs the furthest-along already-started pilot at the moment of this start (time grid).

Time lost on speed-section legs

Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot’s leg time is compared with the mean of the top-10 (by rank) pilots who completed that leg; only losses count, and the losses are summed. Summed leg times are race time and the reference is defined by rank, so this tracks the outcome by construction — read the waterfall table (every leg against the task winner) for the diagnostic, not the correlation for a finding.

-6:57SSS→KANGCKKANGCK→TINTALTINTAL→ESS
Shane Duncan against the winner, leg by leg: bars hanging below the line are time lost, bars above are time gained; over the 1 compared leg, -6:57 overall. — marks a leg the pilot or the winner did not complete; the table below has every pilot.

Leg waterfall — leg time vs the task winner

PilotSSS→KANGCKKANGCK→TINTALTINTAL→ESSTotal
Jakota Cummings+0:00+0:00
Shane Duncan-6:57-6:57

Cells: this pilot’s leg time minus the winner’s (+ = slower than the winner, − = faster); — = leg not completed by pilot or winner.

The scalar metric instead sums losses vs the mean of the top 7 pilots who completed each leg (legs flown faster than that reference contribute 0).

Time behind the leader at ESS

Measured in minutes · lower is better

At each speed-section turnpoint, elapsed race time (reaching minus own start) is compared with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint; the scalar is minutes behind at ESS. Expected to track final rank almost perfectly — this metric is the eval’s sanity check.

Minutes behind the fastest pilot at each turnpoint — the leader runs along the top at zero, and a line that stops early is a pilot who landed. The top 4 are coloured; every pilot's exact numbers are in the table below.

Horserace — minutes behind the leader at each turnpoint

PilotELLIOTKANGCKTINTALNCORGLNCORGL
Jakota Cummings0.00.0
Shane Duncan54.247.3
Amber Tsai7.3
Mark Tyminski240.8

Elapsed race time (from each pilot’s own start) minus the fastest elapsed time to that turnpoint; — = turnpoint not reached.

Metric glossary

How every metric on this page is measured. On screen, the ⓘ next to a metric opens the same description in place; in print, this section is the reference for all of them.

Day profile & wind

Wind (by hour and by leg)(“Wind” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction

Wind estimated from every pilot’s circling (centre drift preferred, ground-speed modulation as fallback), vector-averaged two ways: by hour of day (how the wind built and shifted through the day) and by speed-section leg (the wind each part of the course saw). Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Climb by hour(“Climb/hr” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

All pilots’ thermal climbs bucketed by the hour the climb started (labelled in the competition’s time zone): median and 90th-percentile average climb rate per hour show how the day’s lift developed. Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Time in non-sinking air(“NonSink%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot’s airborne time (on the shared grid) spent in non-sinking air — 30 s-smoothed vario at or above −0.5 m/s. Reflects how much of the flight met usable air: when flown, where the pilot steered, and how the flight ended all feed it, so the correlation sign is the finding. The timing table relates the day’s best climbs window to when the field actually launched.

Climbing

Climb rate vs field in shared thermals(“SharedPct” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

In every thermal two or more pilots used, each use is ranked by average climb rate; a use’s percentile is the share of strictly slower uses. The value is the duration-weighted mean percentile over the pilot’s shared climbs — centering skill isolated from thermal selection.

Time to core a thermal(“Core s” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each thermal of at least 60 s, the seconds from entering until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the pilot’s thermals — how fast they centre the best lift after arriving.

Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal(“ExitDecay” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

For each thermal of at least 90 s, the climb rate over its final 30 s — the "give-up rate". The value is the median: low means the pilot abandons weakening lift early, high means they ride climbs to the end; the correlation sign says which behaviour paid on this task.

Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs(“Accept%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.

Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band(“ExitBand%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

The altitude at which the pilot left each post-start thermal, as a percentage of the day’s working band (0% = field floor, 100% = field ceiling); the value is the median. High means topping out every climb, low means leaving early with climb still available.

Circle fit error relative to circle radius(“Smooth” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.

Gliding

Glide speed (post-start)(“GlideSpd” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.

Glide L/D vs field (per leg)(“L/D vs f” in tables)
Measured in ratio · higher is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot's glide-phase L/D (path distance ÷ net altitude lost while gliding; legs losing under 100 m skipped) is divided by the field's median L/D on that same leg, then averaged over legs. Above 1.0 means the pilot found better glide lines than the field on the same legs.

Speed-to-fly proxy(“STFproxy” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

A speed-to-fly PROXY — no glider polar data exists. Each post-start glide is paired with the climb rate of the next thermal starting within 5 minutes; the value is the mean glide speed flown before stronger-than-median climbs minus the mean before weaker ones. Positive means the pilot speeds up when the next climb justifies it.

Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)(“TrackEff” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Route distance flown on each completed speed-section leg — full path outside climbs, each climb counted as its net drift — ÷ the leg's optimized distance, averaged with optimized-distance weights. Closer to 1.0 means less deviation from the optimal course line; circling path is excluded, so stopping to climb does not read as bad line choice.

Dolphin climb fraction(“Dolphin%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of post-start altitude gain (10 s-smoothed) made outside detected thermals — climbing on the run instead of stopping to circle. Neutral: the correlation sign shows whether dolphin climbing paid on this day.

Decision-making

Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)(“Floor%” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

Finds each pilot's post-start altitude minima (30 s-smoothed, at least 100 m below the surrounding maxima) — the points where they stopped descending and committed to a climb — and reports the median as a percentage of the day's working band. Higher means the pilot keeps more margin in hand before taking a climb.

Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)(“LowSaves” in tables)
Measured in count · no expected direction

Counts post-start climbs entered below 15% of the working band that went on to gain at least 300 m — genuine low saves. Zero is a real score for a started pilot; the correlation sign says whether digging out or never getting low is what pays.

Climbs per 100 km flown(“Clm/100km” in tables)
Measured in count · lower is better

Post-start thermal count per 100 km of scored flown distance — how often the pilot stops to circle. Each pilot's note adds their mean climb percentile within shared thermals, so few stops can be read together with climb strength.

Search fraction of the speed section(“Search%” in tables)
Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Gaggle

Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)(“Affinity” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start flying time spent inside a detected gaggle (clustered with at least one other racing pilot on the shared time grid). Neutral: the correlation sign says whether sticking with company paid on the day.

Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)(“Marked%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start climbs where another pilot was already established (at least 30 s) and still climbing in the same thermal when they joined. High = climbs on others' markers; low = finds their own lift.

Gaggle departure win rate(“DepartWin” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

When a pilot leaves a gaggle that keeps flying, did leaving pay off? We compare the leaver's arrival at the next turnpoint against the median arrival of the pilots who stayed. Win rate > 50% means their departures beat the gaggle. Only pilots still in the gaggle after the split who reached that turnpoint after it count as stayers.

Race craft

Start delay (gate to crossing)(“StartDly” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

Seconds from the start gate taken (or the pilot’s own crossing on elapsed-time tasks, where the delay is 0 by definition) to the scored SSS crossing. The start table adds crossing altitude and how far behind the leading already-started pilot each start was.

Time lost on speed-section legs(“LegLost” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot’s leg time is compared with the mean of the top-10 (by rank) pilots who completed that leg; only losses count, and the losses are summed. Summed leg times are race time and the reference is defined by rank, so this tracks the outcome by construction — read the waterfall table (every leg against the task winner) for the diagnostic, not the correlation for a finding.

Time behind the leader at ESS(“Behind” in tables)
Measured in minutes · lower is better

At each speed-section turnpoint, elapsed race time (reaching minus own start) is compared with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint; the scalar is minutes behind at ESS. Expected to track final rank almost perfectly — this metric is the eval’s sanity check.

Altitude margin over final glide at ESS(“ESSMargin” in tables)
Measured in metres · lower is better

Altitude at ESS minus the altitude needed to glide to goal at the sport’s standard glide ratio (S7F §12.3.6: 5.0 HG / 4.0 PG). A big positive margin is altitude — i.e. time — left unspent.

Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb(“FinalGl” in tables)
Measured in ratio · no expected direction

At the pilot’s last climb before ESS (or landing): distance to goal divided by height above goal — the glide ratio they committed to. Only counted when that climb ended within 1.5× the final leg’s distance of goal.