Skip to main content

Task 1 (Open)

How the field actually flew this task, and which behaviours separated it.

View task

Analysis computed

Pilots analysed
54
Sampling
every 10s
Shared thermals
83 of 273multi-pilot
Working band
927–2543 m
Phase coverage
100%

1 pilot is in the standings but not in this analysis:

  • Peter Burkitt — scored from a manual flight report — no tracklog to analyse

Correlations are measured against the published ranks, which include these pilots; their behaviour simply cannot be measured without a tracklog.

What separated the field

Each metric's Spearman correlation against the published rank. Rank 1 is best, so a metric where more is better shows a negative ρ. Bigger bars mean the metric separated the field more sharply on this task. Select a row to see that metric plotted against rank.

MetricρStrengthnVerdictFamily
Glide speed (post-start)-0.82
53strongGliding
Search fraction of the speed section0.68
54strongDecision-making
Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs-0.57
53strongClimbing
Altitude margin over final glide at ESS0.56
25strongRace craft
Climbs per 100 km flown0.47
39moderateDecision-making
Gaggle departure win rate-0.44
26moderateGaggle
Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band-0.41
53moderateClimbing
Glide L/D vs field (per leg)-0.39
49moderateGliding
Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)-0.35
54moderateGaggle
Start delay (gate to crossing)0.31
54moderateRace craft
Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)0.30
50moderateGliding
Time to core a thermal0.28
54weakClimbing
Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)-0.27
45within noiseDecision-making
Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal-0.15
54within noiseClimbing
Dolphin climb fraction0.12
51within noiseGliding
Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)0.10
49within noiseGaggle
Circle fit error relative to circle radius0.08
51within noiseClimbing
Time in non-sinking air-0.06
54within noiseDay profile & wind
Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)0.04
54within noiseDecision-making
Speed-to-fly proxy0.03
44within noiseGliding
Climb rate vs field in shared thermals-0.00
54within noiseClimbing

Verdicts: strong |ρ| ≥ 0.5, moderate ≥ 0.3, weak below — but only after clearing the noise floor for that metric's n. within noise means shuffled ranks produce a coefficient that size more than 5% of the time, so it is indistinguishable from luck whatever its magnitude.

With 21 metrics ranked on this one task, the top rows are partly selection luck — trust the metrics that repeat across tasks in the competition-level analysis.

Glide speed (post-start)

Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.

Each dot is a pilot: across is the metric's value, up is a better rank. ρ = -0.82 (strong, n = 53). More is expected to be better here, and it was: top ranks gather to the right. 1 pilot has no value and is not plotted.
  • Field glide speed: median 54.5 km/h · p90 67.3 km/h (53 pilots)

Outcome checks

These metrics are derived from the race outcome itself, so they correlate with rank by construction — a low |ρ| here questions the eval, not the flying. Their per-pilot diagnostics stay in the Race craft section below.

MetricρStrengthnVerdict
Time behind the leader at ESS1.00
25strong
Time lost on speed-section legs-0.09
50within noise

The whole field at a glance

1. Jon Durand
2. Gordon Rigg
3. Jochen Zeischka
4. Olav Opsanger
5. Tony Cross
6. Scott Barrett
7. Mitch Butler
8. Rohan Holtkamp
9. Rory Duncan
10. Nils Vesk
11. Trent Brown
12. Vic Hare
13. Neale Halsall
14. Steve Blenkinsop
15. Guy Hubbard
16. Ward Gunn
17. Rich Reinauer
18. Dustan Hansen
19. Pawel Cedro
20. Adrian Connor
21. Troy Horton
22. Enda Carrigan
23. Grant Tatham
24. David Drabble
25. Paul Bissett-Amess
26. Mark Jeffree
27. Marty Hearne
28. Todd Wisewould
29. Stuart Cathcart
30. Cedric Joyce
31. Steven Crosby
32. Ken Millard
33. Tushar Pokle
34. Diego Mendonca
35. Neill Hollingsworth
36. Bruce Atkinson
37. Steve Docherty
38. Andrew Sutton
39. Peter Garrone
40. Neil Hooke
41. Jason Lannstrom
42. Peter Adriaans
43. Ian Miller
44. Andrew Taylor
45. Ben Torrance
46. James Atkinson
47. Gavin Nicholls
48. Michael Free
49. John Harriott
50. Bobby Gillham
51. Gary Herman
52. Brett Davis
53. Wayne Johnston
54. James McGinty
Pilots in rank order against every metric: darker = a better percentile in this field (empty = not applicable). Column order follows the family sections below, which carry the exact values. † No good/bad direction — shade is position in the field, not quality.

Pilot style clusters

Groups are flying style, not score — the rank spread on each shows where that style did and did not pay. Each group is named after its strongest signature; ★ marks the pilot most typical of their group.

Group A — Fast gliders

28 pilots · ranks 1–51 · median 15.5 · middle half 7.8–23.3

  • High — Glide speed (post-start) group median P74 in this field (61.2 kilometres per hour) · usually a strength
  • High — Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs group median P71 in this field (77 percent)
  • Low — Search fraction of the speed section group median P31 in this field (24 percent) · usually a strength
  • High — Glide L/D vs field (per leg) group median P69 in this field (1.09 ratio) · usually a strength
  • 1. Jon Durand
  • 2. Gordon Rigg
  • 3. Jochen Zeischka
  • 4. Olav Opsanger
  • 5. Tony Cross
  • 6. Scott Barrett
  • 7. Mitch Butler
  • 8. Rohan Holtkamp
  • 9. Rory Duncan
  • 11. Trent Brown (most typical of this group)
  • 12. Vic Hare
  • 13. Neale Halsall
  • 14. Steve Blenkinsop
  • 15. Guy Hubbard
  • 16. Ward Gunn
  • 17. Rich Reinauer
  • 18. Dustan Hansen
  • 19. Pawel Cedro
  • 20. Adrian Connor
  • 22. Enda Carrigan
  • 23. Grant Tatham
  • 24. David Drabble
  • 25. Paul Bissett-Amess
  • 31. Steven Crosby
  • 36. Bruce Atkinson
  • 37. Steve Docherty
  • 38. Andrew Sutton
  • 51. Gary Herman

Group B — Rough circlers

6 pilots · ranks 10–50 · median 35.5 · middle half 29.3–44.8

  • High — Circle fit error relative to circle radius group median P96 in this field (0.24 ratio) · usually costly
  • Low — Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal group median P6 in this field (0.3 metres per second)
  • Low — Climb rate vs field in shared thermals group median P8 in this field (57 percent) · usually costly
  • Low — Dolphin climb fraction group median P8 in this field (3 percent)
  • 10. Nils Vesk
  • 29. Stuart Cathcart
  • 30. Cedric Joyce
  • 41. Jason Lannstrom
  • 46. James Atkinson
  • 50. Bobby Gillham (most typical of this group)

Group C — Stop-often flyers

18 pilots · ranks 21–53 · median 39.5 · middle half 32.3–44.8

  • High — Climbs per 100 km flown group median P89 in this field (101.7 count) · usually costly
  • High — Search fraction of the speed section group median P82 in this field (44 percent) · usually costly
  • High — Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance) group median P82 in this field (2.17 ratio) · usually costly
  • Low — Glide L/D vs field (per leg) group median P20 in this field (0.90 ratio) · usually costly
  • 21. Troy Horton
  • 26. Mark Jeffree
  • 27. Marty Hearne (most typical of this group)
  • 28. Todd Wisewould
  • 32. Ken Millard
  • 33. Tushar Pokle
  • 34. Diego Mendonca
  • 35. Neill Hollingsworth
  • 39. Peter Garrone
  • 40. Neil Hooke
  • 42. Peter Adriaans
  • 43. Ian Miller
  • 44. Andrew Taylor
  • 45. Ben Torrance
  • 47. Gavin Nicholls
  • 48. Michael Free
  • 49. John Harriott
  • 53. Wayne Johnston

Not clustered: 52. Brett Davis — only 12 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 54. James McGinty — only 11 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%).

Pilots are grouped by flying style, not by score: every behavioural metric is rank-transformed to a within-field percentile, pilots are compared by the mean percentile gap over the metrics both have (missing values are never imputed), and Ward-linkage agglomeration forms the groups, with the number of groups chosen by the best mean silhouette. Each group is annotated with the GAP-rank spread of its members — where a style did and did not pay. Here: 52 pilots on 21 behavioural metrics formed 3 groups (k searched 2–6); mean silhouette 0.15 — near 0 means soft group boundaries, near 1 tight well-separated groups.

The metrics in detail

strongest |ρ| 0.06

strongest |ρ| 0.57

#PilotSharedPctCore sExitDecayAccept%ExitBand%Smooth
1Jon Durand80 (18 shared climbs)48 (10 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s)88 (7/8 circling bouts led to climbs)80 (mean on-course altitude 50% of band)0.15 (156 circles, 95% left)
2Gordon Rigg80 (15 shared climbs)60 (9 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)63 (5/8 circling bouts led to climbs)89 (mean on-course altitude 64% of band)0.13 (82 circles, 72% left)
3Jochen Zeischka77 (28 shared climbs)37 (11 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)88 (7/8 circling bouts led to climbs)64 (mean on-course altitude 48% of band)0.14 (91 circles, 36% left)
4Olav Opsanger77 (18 shared climbs)58 (8 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.7 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)73 (8/11 circling bouts led to climbs)57 (mean on-course altitude 50% of band)0.20 (124 circles, 30% left)
5Tony Cross76 (32 shared climbs)36 (16 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (13 climbs ≥ 90 s)60 (6/10 circling bouts led to climbs)43 (mean on-course altitude 50% of band)0.15 (147 circles, 83% left)
6Scott Barrett73 (37 shared climbs)33 (12 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)70 (7/10 circling bouts led to climbs)46 (mean on-course altitude 44% of band)0.13 (107 circles, 68% left)
7Mitch Butler64 (44 shared climbs)40 (16 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.6 (11 climbs ≥ 90 s)67 (10/15 circling bouts led to climbs)41 (mean on-course altitude 48% of band)0.21 (164 circles, 94% left)
8Rohan Holtkamp68 (28 shared climbs)45 (10 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)78 (7/9 circling bouts led to climbs)47 (mean on-course altitude 54% of band)0.21 (95 circles, 46% left)
9Rory Duncan70 (44 shared climbs)39 (16 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.6 (12 climbs ≥ 90 s)100 (11/11 circling bouts led to climbs)38 (mean on-course altitude 46% of band)0.15 (160 circles, 79% left)
10Nils Vesk52 (16 shared climbs)115 (16 climbs ≥ 60 s)-0.4 (16 climbs ≥ 90 s)47 (7/15 circling bouts led to climbs)78 (mean on-course altitude 51% of band)0.35 (15 circles, 53% left)
11Trent Brown70 (54 shared climbs)39 (18 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.6 (10 climbs ≥ 90 s)80 (12/15 circling bouts led to climbs)41 (mean on-course altitude 42% of band)0.16 (156 circles, 99% left)
12Vic Hare74 (31 shared climbs)31 (14 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.7 (8 climbs ≥ 90 s)58 (7/12 circling bouts led to climbs)74 (mean on-course altitude 53% of band)0.17 (148 circles, 51% left)
13Neale Halsall67 (39 shared climbs)26 (18 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (14 climbs ≥ 90 s)90 (9/10 circling bouts led to climbs)58 (mean on-course altitude 46% of band)0.12 (170 circles, 41% left)
14Steve Blenkinsop63 (25 shared climbs)74 (13 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (12 climbs ≥ 90 s)90 (9/10 circling bouts led to climbs)88 (mean on-course altitude 68% of band)0.19 (203 circles, 48% left)
15Guy Hubbard66 (47 shared climbs)32 (17 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (14 climbs ≥ 90 s)87 (13/15 circling bouts led to climbs)75 (mean on-course altitude 57% of band)0.18 (182 circles, 63% left)
16Ward Gunn66 (51 shared climbs)35 (23 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (11 climbs ≥ 90 s)77 (10/13 circling bouts led to climbs)63 (mean on-course altitude 60% of band)0.19 (147 circles, 41% left)
17Rich Reinauer69 (21 shared climbs)35 (18 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)67 (6/9 circling bouts led to climbs)81 (mean on-course altitude 56% of band)0.19 (100 circles, 93% left)
18Dustan Hansen58 (19 shared climbs)33 (14 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s)64 (7/11 circling bouts led to climbs)69 (mean on-course altitude 52% of band)0.11 (141 circles, 75% left)
19Pawel Cedro66 (46 shared climbs)32 (18 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (11 climbs ≥ 90 s)84 (16/19 circling bouts led to climbs)61 (mean on-course altitude 53% of band)0.16 (193 circles, 24% left)
20Adrian Connor78 (32 shared climbs)48 (12 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.9 (10 climbs ≥ 90 s)100 (12/12 circling bouts led to climbs)70 (mean on-course altitude 54% of band)0.16 (127 circles, 48% left)
21Troy Horton71 (38 shared climbs)32 (19 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (11 climbs ≥ 90 s)55 (11/20 circling bouts led to climbs)59 (mean on-course altitude 51% of band)0.16 (154 circles, 78% left)
22Enda Carrigan64 (52 shared climbs)30 (22 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.6 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s)72 (13/18 circling bouts led to climbs)64 (mean on-course altitude 55% of band)0.19 (208 circles, 73% left)
23Grant Tatham69 (51 shared climbs)39 (17 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (13 climbs ≥ 90 s)78 (14/18 circling bouts led to climbs)71 (mean on-course altitude 50% of band)0.18 (179 circles, 58% left)
24David Drabble78 (34 shared climbs)34 (11 climbs ≥ 60 s)2.2 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)77 (10/13 circling bouts led to climbs)59 (mean on-course altitude 59% of band)0.14 (126 circles, 94% left)
25Paul Bissett-Amess59 (43 shared climbs)34 (17 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (12 climbs ≥ 90 s)82 (9/11 circling bouts led to climbs)65 (mean on-course altitude 51% of band)0.18 (239 circles, 41% left)
26Mark Jeffree37 (5 shared climbs)68 (11 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.7 (8 climbs ≥ 90 s)55 (11/20 circling bouts led to climbs)73 (mean on-course altitude 51% of band)0.16 (106 circles, 88% left)
27Marty Hearne71 (33 shared climbs)34 (16 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s)73 (8/11 circling bouts led to climbs)43 (mean on-course altitude 30% of band)0.16 (143 circles, 100% left)
28Todd Wisewould60 (51 shared climbs)61 (16 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s)65 (13/20 circling bouts led to climbs)38 (mean on-course altitude 45% of band)0.16 (271 circles, 99% left)
29Stuart Cathcart58 (23 shared climbs)48 (26 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.6 (21 climbs ≥ 90 s)67 (14/21 circling bouts led to climbs)22 (mean on-course altitude 24% of band)0.20 (81 circles, 93% left)
30Cedric Joyce60 (12 shared climbs)78 (12 climbs ≥ 60 s)-0.4 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s)67 (10/15 circling bouts led to climbs)97 (mean on-course altitude 66% of band)— (5 circles, 40% left)
31Steven Crosby76 (11 shared climbs)91 (5 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)57 (4/7 circling bouts led to climbs)20 (mean on-course altitude 35% of band)0.18 (79 circles, 59% left)
32Ken Millard75 (36 shared climbs)34 (12 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s)80 (8/10 circling bouts led to climbs)68 (mean on-course altitude 54% of band)0.18 (203 circles, 46% left)
33Tushar Pokle77 (34 shared climbs)42 (12 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.8 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)50 (5/10 circling bouts led to climbs)85 (mean on-course altitude 63% of band)0.14 (123 circles, 90% left)
34Diego Mendonca72 (39 shared climbs)34 (21 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (10 climbs ≥ 90 s)67 (12/18 circling bouts led to climbs)80 (mean on-course altitude 65% of band)0.13 (216 circles, 95% left)
35Neill Hollingsworth65 (35 shared climbs)35 (8 climbs ≥ 60 s)2.5 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)62 (8/13 circling bouts led to climbs)42 (mean on-course altitude 35% of band)0.15 (99 circles, 79% left)
36Bruce Atkinson78 (6 shared climbs)60 (7 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.4 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)40 (4/10 circling bouts led to climbs)99 (mean on-course altitude 32% of band)— (6 circles, 100% left)
37Steve Docherty85 (12 shared climbs)60 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.6 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s)60 (3/5 circling bouts led to climbs)30 (mean on-course altitude 31% of band)0.09 (60 circles, 93% left)
38Andrew Sutton63 (19 shared climbs)12 (10 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)80 (4/5 circling bouts led to climbs)44 (mean on-course altitude 38% of band)0.16 (98 circles, 95% left)
39Peter Garrone61 (28 shared climbs)42 (11 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s)56 (5/9 circling bouts led to climbs)31 (mean on-course altitude 26% of band)0.16 (115 circles, 77% left)
40Neil Hooke82 (8 shared climbs)41 (7 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)57 (4/7 circling bouts led to climbs)-11 (mean on-course altitude 20% of band)0.18 (66 circles, 67% left)
41Jason Lannstrom55 (18 shared climbs)68 (11 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.7 (8 climbs ≥ 90 s)67 (4/6 circling bouts led to climbs)92 (mean on-course altitude 65% of band)0.18 (57 circles, 95% left)
42Peter Adriaans74 (15 shared climbs)80 (5 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)71 (5/7 circling bouts led to climbs)-3 (mean on-course altitude 26% of band)0.14 (52 circles, 19% left)
43Ian Miller61 (20 shared climbs)49 (8 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)25 (1/4 circling bouts led to climbs)5 (mean on-course altitude 7% of band)0.19 (85 circles, 98% left)
44Andrew Taylor72 (14 shared climbs)41 (7 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)56 (5/9 circling bouts led to climbs)20 (mean on-course altitude 26% of band)0.14 (141 circles, 94% left)
45Ben Torrance68 (15 shared climbs)44 (15 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (13 climbs ≥ 90 s)20 (1/5 circling bouts led to climbs)44 (mean on-course altitude 14% of band)0.17 (249 circles, 87% left)
46James Atkinson48 (13 shared climbs)50 (13 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.5 (10 climbs ≥ 90 s)14 (1/7 circling bouts led to climbs)33 (mean on-course altitude 8% of band)0.24 (16 circles, 81% left)
47Gavin Nicholls71 (8 shared climbs)34 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s)50 (3/6 circling bouts led to climbs)8 (mean on-course altitude 3% of band)0.18 (78 circles, 88% left)
48Michael Free60 (29 shared climbs)26 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)50 (2/4 circling bouts led to climbs)17 (mean on-course altitude 6% of band)0.14 (115 circles, 96% left)
49John Harriott72 (10 shared climbs)71 (3 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)20 (1/5 circling bouts led to climbs)1 (mean on-course altitude -6% of band)0.12 (56 circles, 25% left)
50Bobby Gillham64 (14 shared climbs)118 (14 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.2 (12 climbs ≥ 90 s)61 (11/18 circling bouts led to climbs)61 (mean on-course altitude 40% of band)0.26 (27 circles, 81% left)
51Gary Herman78 (23 shared climbs)58 (10 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (8 climbs ≥ 90 s)77 (10/13 circling bouts led to climbs)19 (mean on-course altitude 33% of band)0.17 (117 circles, 21% left)
52Brett Davis87 (3 shared climbs)66 (2 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.6 (1 climb ≥ 90 s)33 (1/3 circling bouts led to climbs)29 (mean on-course altitude 20% of band)0.23 (40 circles, 100% left)
53Wayne Johnston85 (8 shared climbs)48 (5 climbs ≥ 60 s)2.3 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s)33 (1/3 circling bouts led to climbs)80 (mean on-course altitude 52% of band)— (8 circles, 100% left)
54James McGinty74 (11 shared climbs)101 (1 climb ≥ 60 s)2.4 (1 climb ≥ 90 s)——0.19 (15 circles, 80% left)

Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs

Measured in percent · no expected direction

Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.

Acceptance by hour

HourMedian accepted (%)pilots
8832
8350
6338
209
01

Median per-pilot acceptance %, bucketed by the hour (competition time zone).

Circle fit error relative to circle radius

Measured in ratio · lower is better

Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.

Turn direction across the field: 71% left (6341 circles).

strongest |ρ| 0.82

#PilotGlideSpdL/D vs fSTFproxyTrackEffDolphin%
1Jon Durand68.4 (11 glides, 46 min gliding)1.06 (5 legs compared)9.4 (10 glide→climb pairs)1.21 (5 legs completed)5 (200 of 4126 m gained outside thermals)
2Gordon Rigg72.2 (9 glides, 41 min gliding)1.48 (5 legs compared)-2.0 (8 glide→climb pairs)1.23 (5 legs completed)3 (81 of 2903 m gained outside thermals)
3Jochen Zeischka71.4 (14 glides, 36 min gliding)1.11 (5 legs compared)-9.2 (13 glide→climb pairs)1.32 (5 legs completed)11 (428 of 3884 m gained outside thermals)
4Olav Opsanger65.7 (14 glides, 43 min gliding)1.19 (5 legs compared)-1.4 (13 glide→climb pairs)1.47 (5 legs completed)8 (312 of 4018 m gained outside thermals)
5Tony Cross61.8 (18 glides, 46 min gliding)0.93 (5 legs compared)5.5 (17 glide→climb pairs)1.32 (5 legs completed)11 (430 of 4093 m gained outside thermals)
6Scott Barrett67.6 (11 glides, 37 min gliding)0.99 (5 legs compared)10.7 (10 glide→climb pairs)1.42 (5 legs completed)15 (627 of 4170 m gained outside thermals)
7Mitch Butler60.7 (16 glides, 45 min gliding)1.15 (5 legs compared)-2.5 (15 glide→climb pairs)1.35 (5 legs completed)10 (380 of 3939 m gained outside thermals)
8Rohan Holtkamp66.3 (15 glides, 38 min gliding)1.02 (4 legs compared)3.7 (14 glide→climb pairs)1.24 (5 legs completed)12 (356 of 3055 m gained outside thermals)
9Rory Duncan62.2 (18 glides, 53 min gliding)1.12 (5 legs compared)1.9 (17 glide→climb pairs)1.37 (5 legs completed)10 (496 of 4958 m gained outside thermals)
10Nils Vesk57.9 (5 glides, 41 min gliding)1.20 (5 legs compared)-3.4 (4 glide→climb pairs)1.16 (5 legs completed)5 (225 of 4660 m gained outside thermals)
11Trent Brown61.9 (17 glides, 46 min gliding)1.09 (5 legs compared)-3.4 (16 glide→climb pairs)1.40 (5 legs completed)11 (493 of 4419 m gained outside thermals)
12Vic Hare73.5 (15 glides, 47 min gliding)1.26 (5 legs compared)0.3 (14 glide→climb pairs)1.79 (5 legs completed)16 (803 of 5141 m gained outside thermals)
13Neale Halsall62.5 (11 glides, 45 min gliding)0.92 (5 legs compared)5.2 (10 glide→climb pairs)1.42 (5 legs completed)12 (610 of 5191 m gained outside thermals)
14Steve Blenkinsop64.6 (17 glides, 44 min gliding)1.17 (4 legs compared)-3.1 (16 glide→climb pairs)1.54 (5 legs completed)3 (136 of 4541 m gained outside thermals)
15Guy Hubbard62.8 (11 glides, 53 min gliding)1.05 (5 legs compared)-6.5 (10 glide→climb pairs)1.51 (5 legs completed)13 (609 of 4534 m gained outside thermals)
16Ward Gunn69.2 (20 glides, 55 min gliding)1.04 (5 legs compared)-7.8 (19 glide→climb pairs)1.82 (5 legs completed)14 (675 of 4777 m gained outside thermals)
17Rich Reinauer56.5 (15 glides, 49 min gliding)1.23 (5 legs compared)5.7 (14 glide→climb pairs)1.48 (5 legs completed)11 (523 of 4857 m gained outside thermals)
18Dustan Hansen59.7 (19 glides, 62 min gliding)1.10 (5 legs compared)1.4 (18 glide→climb pairs)1.73 (5 legs completed)9 (508 of 5634 m gained outside thermals)
19Pawel Cedro59.9 (20 glides, 67 min gliding)0.94 (5 legs compared)1.0 (19 glide→climb pairs)1.78 (5 legs completed)15 (957 of 6270 m gained outside thermals)
20Adrian Connor50.4 (19 glides, 62 min gliding)0.82 (5 legs compared)-3.3 (18 glide→climb pairs)1.53 (5 legs completed)10 (656 of 6437 m gained outside thermals)
21Troy Horton55.2 (19 glides, 59 min gliding)0.88 (5 legs compared)-0.3 (18 glide→climb pairs)1.72 (5 legs completed)10 (692 of 6739 m gained outside thermals)
22Enda Carrigan58.8 (18 glides, 67 min gliding)1.09 (5 legs compared)1.6 (17 glide→climb pairs)1.91 (5 legs completed)14 (829 of 6096 m gained outside thermals)
23Grant Tatham49.8 (24 glides, 70 min gliding)0.98 (5 legs compared)-2.6 (23 glide→climb pairs)1.49 (5 legs completed)7 (480 of 6440 m gained outside thermals)
24David Drabble58.9 (21 glides, 71 min gliding)1.15 (5 legs compared)2.7 (20 glide→climb pairs)2.07 (5 legs completed)25 (1399 of 5537 m gained outside thermals)
25Paul Bissett-Amess58.7 (18 glides, 66 min gliding)1.08 (5 legs compared)1.4 (17 glide→climb pairs)1.74 (5 legs completed)9 (485 of 5697 m gained outside thermals)
26Mark Jeffree48.2 (17 glides, 75 min gliding)0.93 (4 legs compared)3.2 (16 glide→climb pairs)1.77 (4 legs completed)15 (610 of 4170 m gained outside thermals)
27Marty Hearne48.3 (14 glides, 60 min gliding)0.86 (3 legs compared)-0.3 (13 glide→climb pairs)1.94 (3 legs completed)16 (727 of 4535 m gained outside thermals)
28Todd Wisewould60.3 (25 glides, 65 min gliding)1.03 (3 legs compared)5.1 (24 glide→climb pairs)2.33 (3 legs completed)14 (796 of 5615 m gained outside thermals)
29Stuart Cathcart49.4 (16 glides, 62 min gliding)1.07 (2 legs compared)2.2 (15 glide→climb pairs)1.95 (2 legs completed)6 (340 of 5448 m gained outside thermals)
30Cedric Joyce47.8 (8 glides, 41 min gliding)0.98 (2 legs compared)7.9 (7 glide→climb pairs)1.47 (2 legs completed)1 (43 of 3518 m gained outside thermals)
31Steven Crosby54.9 (6 glides, 27 min gliding)1.35 (2 legs compared)-2.6 (5 glide→climb pairs)1.33 (2 legs completed)9 (139 of 1522 m gained outside thermals)
32Ken Millard54.7 (19 glides, 51 min gliding)0.91 (2 legs compared)1.8 (18 glide→climb pairs)2.24 (2 legs completed)35 (1534 of 4423 m gained outside thermals)
33Tushar Pokle46.0 (16 glides, 58 min gliding)0.79 (1 leg compared)-2.4 (15 glide→climb pairs)2.09 (2 legs completed)11 (423 of 3858 m gained outside thermals)
34Diego Mendonca53.4 (20 glides, 73 min gliding)0.83 (2 legs compared)4.6 (19 glide→climb pairs)4.36 (2 legs completed)12 (776 of 6375 m gained outside thermals)
35Neill Hollingsworth47.1 (16 glides, 47 min gliding)0.56 (1 leg compared)-1.2 (15 glide→climb pairs)4.40 (1 leg completed)28 (878 of 3117 m gained outside thermals)
36Bruce Atkinson43.0 (5 glides, 29 min gliding)1.37 (1 leg compared)3.0 (4 glide→climb pairs)1.18 (1 leg completed)5 (115 of 2440 m gained outside thermals)
37Steve Docherty52.4 (4 glides, 25 min gliding)1.24 (1 leg compared)—1.27 (1 leg completed)6 (108 of 1826 m gained outside thermals)
38Andrew Sutton50.2 (9 glides, 32 min gliding)1.05 (1 leg compared)1.1 (8 glide→climb pairs)1.31 (1 leg completed)12 (252 of 2136 m gained outside thermals)
39Peter Garrone47.4 (6 glides, 34 min gliding)0.77 (1 leg compared)-1.7 (5 glide→climb pairs)3.72 (1 leg completed)9 (286 of 3027 m gained outside thermals)
40Neil Hooke47.1 (7 glides, 25 min gliding)0.98 (1 leg compared)-6.1 (6 glide→climb pairs)1.22 (1 leg completed)20 (274 of 1365 m gained outside thermals)
41Jason Lannstrom46.2 (5 glides, 28 min gliding)0.99 (1 leg compared)9.1 (4 glide→climb pairs)2.49 (1 leg completed)6 (69 of 1206 m gained outside thermals)
42Peter Adriaans52.9 (10 glides, 29 min gliding)0.76 (1 leg compared)1.6 (9 glide→climb pairs)1.26 (1 leg completed)7 (86 of 1143 m gained outside thermals)
43Ian Miller47.1 (3 glides, 11 min gliding)1.08 (1 leg compared)—1.15 (1 leg completed)19 (100 of 535 m gained outside thermals)
44Andrew Taylor44.0 (12 glides, 45 min gliding)0.51 (1 leg compared)-0.0 (11 glide→climb pairs)3.08 (1 leg completed)14 (387 of 2672 m gained outside thermals)
45Ben Torrance47.4 (1 glides, 17 min gliding)——1.15 (1 leg completed)10 (34 of 347 m gained outside thermals)
46James Atkinson50.8 (2 glides, 11 min gliding)1.29 (1 leg compared)—1.88 (1 leg completed)2 (13 of 733 m gained outside thermals)
47Gavin Nicholls54.5 (4 glides, 15 min gliding)1.05 (1 leg compared)—2.72 (1 leg completed)22 (154 of 705 m gained outside thermals)
48Michael Free49.1 (2 glides, 12 min gliding)0.93 (1 leg compared)—2.17 (1 leg completed)—
49John Harriott50.5 (1 glides, 16 min gliding)0.92 (1 leg compared)—2.52 (1 leg completed)26 (173 of 676 m gained outside thermals)
50Bobby Gillham48.9 (8 glides, 45 min gliding)—-1.8 (7 glide→climb pairs)—1 (67 of 5096 m gained outside thermals)
51Gary Herman54.5 (13 glides, 41 min gliding)—-1.7 (12 glide→climb pairs)—8 (388 of 4624 m gained outside thermals)
52Brett Davis45.3 (2 glides, 11 min gliding)————
53Wayne Johnston35.8 (2 glides, 19 min gliding)———24 (81 of 344 m gained outside thermals)
54James McGinty—0.83 (1 leg compared)—1.24 (1 leg completed)—

Glide speed (post-start)

Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.

Field glide speed: median 54.5 km/h · p90 67.3 km/h (53 pilots)

strongest |ρ| 0.68

#PilotFloor%LowSavesClm/100kmSearch%
1Jon Durand44 (6 dips, lowest 3% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 2% of band)27.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 57%)14
2Gordon Rigg46 (4 dips, lowest 33% of band)0.019.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 61%)18
3Jochen Zeischka15 (5 dips, lowest -26% of band)0.047.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 53%)23
4Olav Opsanger36 (4 dips, lowest 6% of band)0.035.7 (mean shared-climb pctile 46%)29
5Tony Cross35 (5 dips, lowest -4% of band)0.043.7 (mean shared-climb pctile 53%)21
6Scott Barrett24 (7 dips, lowest 9% of band)0.065.5 (mean shared-climb pctile 58%)23
7Mitch Butler20 (4 dips, lowest 10% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 14% of band)51.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 44%)24
8Rohan Holtkamp24 (3 dips, lowest 8% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 14% of band)45.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 52%)29
9Rory Duncan26 (6 dips, lowest 2% of band)0.057.5 (mean shared-climb pctile 51%)20
10Nils Vesk30 (6 dips, lowest 9% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 11% of band)19.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 37%)9
11Trent Brown47 (6 dips, lowest -7% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -7% of band)49.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 49%)30
12Vic Hare63 (9 dips, lowest -14% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -9% of band)61.5 (mean shared-climb pctile 60%)32
13Neale Halsall20 (5 dips, lowest -15% of band)0.051.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 50%)15
14Steve Blenkinsop62 (9 dips, lowest 27% of band)0.053.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 40%)19
15Guy Hubbard42 (5 dips, lowest 12% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 12% of band)51.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 56%)24
16Ward Gunn66 (9 dips, lowest 21% of band)0.069.5 (mean shared-climb pctile 52%)30
17Rich Reinauer68 (8 dips, lowest 0% of band)0.063.5 (mean shared-climb pctile 49%)20
18Dustan Hansen30 (9 dips, lowest 10% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 11% of band)55.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 51%)24
19Pawel Cedro39 (8 dips, lowest 9% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 9% of band)77.4 (mean shared-climb pctile 54%)30
20Adrian Connor43 (9 dips, lowest 13% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 13% of band)71.4 (mean shared-climb pctile 58%)21
21Troy Horton33 (7 dips, lowest -9% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -4% of band)75.4 (mean shared-climb pctile 53%)33
22Enda Carrigan48 (10 dips, lowest -8% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 3% of band)79.4 (mean shared-climb pctile 48%)32
23Grant Tatham46 (9 dips, lowest -13% of band)3.0 (deepest save from 9% of band)69.5 (mean shared-climb pctile 46%)19
24David Drabble38 (8 dips, lowest 8% of band)0.089.3 (mean shared-climb pctile 63%)29
25Paul Bissett-Amess74 (9 dips, lowest 1% of band)0.059.5 (mean shared-climb pctile 38%)24
26Mark Jeffree47 (9 dips, lowest 5% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 8% of band)65.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 32%)42
27Marty Hearne11 (6 dips, lowest -16% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 1% of band)66.0 (mean shared-climb pctile 55%)30
28Todd Wisewould23 (7 dips, lowest -5% of band)0.0128.1 (mean shared-climb pctile 44%)45
29Stuart Cathcart-2 (8 dips, lowest -25% of band)4.0 (deepest save from -15% of band)94.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 47%)39
30Cedric Joyce73 (7 dips, lowest 7% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 7% of band)37.2 (mean shared-climb pctile 46%)22
31Steven Crosby—0.027.9 (mean shared-climb pctile 51%)33
32Ken Millard48 (6 dips, lowest 24% of band)0.0117.0 (mean shared-climb pctile 59%)55
33Tushar Pokle75 (6 dips, lowest 19% of band)0.0101.7 (mean shared-climb pctile 57%)42
34Diego Mendonca56 (11 dips, lowest 13% of band)0.0164.2 (mean shared-climb pctile 54%)45
35Neill Hollingsworth14 (5 dips, lowest -5% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -1% of band)123.0 (mean shared-climb pctile 45%)50
36Bruce Atkinson-7 (3 dips, lowest -8% of band)2.0 (deepest save from -7% of band)23.1 (mean shared-climb pctile 55%)32
37Steve Docherty21 (3 dips, lowest 13% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 13% of band)37.1 (mean shared-climb pctile 54%)27
38Andrew Sutton6 (3 dips, lowest 2% of band)0.074.7 (mean shared-climb pctile 44%)37
39Peter Garrone-15 (2 dips, lowest -25% of band)2.0 (deepest save from -15% of band)53.0 (mean shared-climb pctile 38%)30
40Neil Hooke10 (3 dips, lowest -23% of band)0.0—43
41Jason Lannstrom84 (3 dips, lowest 66% of band)0.0—33
42Peter Adriaans33 (3 dips, lowest 30% of band)0.0—43
43Ian Miller—1.0 (deepest save from -10% of band)—39
44Andrew Taylor8 (3 dips, lowest -28% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -8% of band)—29
45Ben Torrance—0.0—57
46James Atkinson—1.0 (deepest save from -7% of band)—42
47Gavin Nicholls-4 (2 dips, lowest -7% of band)0.0—58
48Michael Free—0.0—47
49John Harriott—1.0 (deepest save from -12% of band)—78
50Bobby Gillham26 (6 dips, lowest -18% of band)3.0 (deepest save from -17% of band)—23
51Gary Herman14 (6 dips, lowest -19% of band)2.0 (deepest save from -19% of band)—35
52Brett Davis—0.0—53
53Wayne Johnston—0.0—48
54James McGinty—0.0—27

Search fraction of the speed section

Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Speed-section phase shares, field p25/median/p75: climb 28/36/40% · glide 29/36/39% · search 23/30/42%

strongest |ρ| 0.44

strongest |ρ| 0.56

Metric glossary

How every metric on this page is measured. On screen, the ⓘ next to a metric opens the same description in place; in print, this section is the reference for all of them.

Day profile & wind

Wind (by hour and by leg)(“Wind” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction

Wind estimated from every pilot’s circling (centre drift preferred, ground-speed modulation as fallback), vector-averaged two ways: by hour of day (how the wind built and shifted through the day) and by speed-section leg (the wind each part of the course saw). Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Climb by hour(“Climb/hr” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

All pilots’ thermal climbs bucketed by the hour the climb started (labelled in the competition’s time zone): median and 90th-percentile average climb rate per hour show how the day’s lift developed. Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Time in non-sinking air(“NonSink%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot’s airborne time (on the shared grid) spent in non-sinking air — 30 s-smoothed vario at or above −0.5 m/s. Reflects how much of the flight met usable air: when flown, where the pilot steered, and how the flight ended all feed it, so the correlation sign is the finding. The timing table relates the day’s best climbs window to when the field actually launched.

Climbing

Climb rate vs field in shared thermals(“SharedPct” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

In every thermal two or more pilots used, each use is ranked by average climb rate; a use’s percentile is the share of strictly slower uses. The value is the duration-weighted mean percentile over the pilot’s shared climbs — centering skill isolated from thermal selection.

Time to core a thermal(“Core s” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each thermal of at least 60 s, the seconds from entering until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the pilot’s thermals — how fast they centre the best lift after arriving.

Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal(“ExitDecay” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

For each thermal of at least 90 s, the climb rate over its final 30 s — the "give-up rate". The value is the median: low means the pilot abandons weakening lift early, high means they ride climbs to the end; the correlation sign says which behaviour paid on this task.

Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs(“Accept%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.

Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band(“ExitBand%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

The altitude at which the pilot left each post-start thermal, as a percentage of the day’s working band (0% = field floor, 100% = field ceiling); the value is the median. High means topping out every climb, low means leaving early with climb still available.

Circle fit error relative to circle radius(“Smooth” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.

Gliding

Glide speed (post-start)(“GlideSpd” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.

Glide L/D vs field (per leg)(“L/D vs f” in tables)
Measured in ratio · higher is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot's glide-phase L/D (path distance ÷ net altitude lost while gliding; legs losing under 100 m skipped) is divided by the field's median L/D on that same leg, then averaged over legs. Above 1.0 means the pilot found better glide lines than the field on the same legs.

Speed-to-fly proxy(“STFproxy” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

A speed-to-fly PROXY — no glider polar data exists. Each post-start glide is paired with the climb rate of the next thermal starting within 5 minutes; the value is the mean glide speed flown before stronger-than-median climbs minus the mean before weaker ones. Positive means the pilot speeds up when the next climb justifies it.

Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)(“TrackEff” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Route distance flown on each completed speed-section leg — full path outside climbs, each climb counted as its net drift — ÷ the leg's optimized distance, averaged with optimized-distance weights. Closer to 1.0 means less deviation from the optimal course line; circling path is excluded, so stopping to climb does not read as bad line choice.

Dolphin climb fraction(“Dolphin%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of post-start altitude gain (10 s-smoothed) made outside detected thermals — climbing on the run instead of stopping to circle. Neutral: the correlation sign shows whether dolphin climbing paid on this day.

Decision-making

Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)(“Floor%” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

Finds each pilot's post-start altitude minima (30 s-smoothed, at least 100 m below the surrounding maxima) — the points where they stopped descending and committed to a climb — and reports the median as a percentage of the day's working band. Higher means the pilot keeps more margin in hand before taking a climb.

Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)(“LowSaves” in tables)
Measured in count · no expected direction

Counts post-start climbs entered below 15% of the working band that went on to gain at least 300 m — genuine low saves. Zero is a real score for a started pilot; the correlation sign says whether digging out or never getting low is what pays.

Climbs per 100 km flown(“Clm/100km” in tables)
Measured in count · lower is better

Post-start thermal count per 100 km of scored flown distance — how often the pilot stops to circle. Each pilot's note adds their mean climb percentile within shared thermals, so few stops can be read together with climb strength.

Search fraction of the speed section(“Search%” in tables)
Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Gaggle

Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)(“Affinity” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start flying time spent inside a detected gaggle (clustered with at least one other racing pilot on the shared time grid). Neutral: the correlation sign says whether sticking with company paid on the day.

Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)(“Marked%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start climbs where another pilot was already established (at least 30 s) and still climbing in the same thermal when they joined. High = climbs on others' markers; low = finds their own lift.

Gaggle departure win rate(“DepartWin” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

When a pilot leaves a gaggle that keeps flying, did leaving pay off? We compare the leaver's arrival at the next turnpoint against the median arrival of the pilots who stayed. Win rate > 50% means their departures beat the gaggle. Only pilots still in the gaggle after the split who reached that turnpoint after it count as stayers.

Race craft

Start delay (gate to crossing)(“StartDly” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

Seconds from the start gate taken (or the pilot’s own crossing on elapsed-time tasks, where the delay is 0 by definition) to the scored SSS crossing. The start table adds crossing altitude and how far behind the leading already-started pilot each start was.

Time lost on speed-section legs(“LegLost” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot’s leg time is compared with the mean of the top-10 (by rank) pilots who completed that leg; only losses count, and the losses are summed. Summed leg times are race time and the reference is defined by rank, so this tracks the outcome by construction — read the waterfall table (every leg against the task winner) for the diagnostic, not the correlation for a finding.

Time behind the leader at ESS(“Behind” in tables)
Measured in minutes · lower is better

At each speed-section turnpoint, elapsed race time (reaching minus own start) is compared with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint; the scalar is minutes behind at ESS. Expected to track final rank almost perfectly — this metric is the eval’s sanity check.

Altitude margin over final glide at ESS(“ESSMargin” in tables)
Measured in metres · lower is better

Altitude at ESS minus the altitude needed to glide to goal at the sport’s standard glide ratio (S7F §12.3.6: 5.0 HG / 4.0 PG). A big positive margin is altitude — i.e. time — left unspent.

Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb(“FinalGl” in tables)
Measured in ratio · no expected direction

At the pilot’s last climb before ESS (or landing): distance to goal divided by height above goal — the glide ratio they committed to. Only counted when that climb ended within 1.5× the final leg’s distance of goal.