Metric details
Every pilot's reading on every behaviour, family by family.
Analysis computed
best: could be chance (0.55)
| # | Pilot | NonSink% |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andy Schmidt | 59 |
| 2 | James Wynd | 53 |
| 3 | Donny Gardner | 58 |
| 4 | Anthony Meechan | 51 |
| 5 | Brett Huggan | 45 |
| 6 | Amber Tsai | 60 |
| 7 | Mark Tyminski | 63 |
| 8 | John Greenwood | 64 |
The day’s wind, hour by hour and leg by leg
Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction
What the air did, read from the field itself. We estimate the wind from the circling of every pilot, from how far the centre of each circle drifts. We then combine the estimates two ways. The table by hour of day shows how the wind increased and changed direction through the day. The table by speed-section leg shows the wind on each part of the course. This metric describes the day, so it has no value for each pilot.
Wind by hour
| Period | Speed (km/h) | Dir (°) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole task | 7.8 | 276 | 824 |
| 7.2 | 346 | 3 | |
| 8.5 | 256 | 331 | |
| 7.1 | 293 | 348 | |
| 7.4 | 298 | 132 | |
| 6.5 | 223 | 10 |
Each circle gives one wind estimate, from the drift of its centre. We do not use the change of ground speed around a circle: checked against 20,000 climbs, it read about 1.5 times too high. The direction is the vector mean of the estimates, in degrees the wind blows FROM (0° = north). The speed is the median of their magnitudes, because the length of a vector mean falls toward zero when the directions scatter.
Hours are shown in the competition’s time zone.
Wind by leg
| Leg | Flown | Pilots | Circling | Speed (km/h) | Dir (°) | n | From pilots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELLIOT (SSS)→TOWONG | 7 | 9.9 | 277 | 17 | 3 | ||
| TOWONG→HALFWY | 1 | 7.2 | 288 | 98 | 1 | ||
| HALFWY→ELLIOT | — | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 |
| ELLIOT→CORRY (ESS) | — | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 |
| CORRY (ESS)→CORRY (GOAL) | — | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 |
Each circle gives one wind estimate, from the drift of its centre. We do not use the change of ground speed around a circle: checked against 20,000 climbs, it read about 1.5 times too high. The direction is the vector mean of the estimates, in degrees the wind blows FROM (0° = north). The speed is the median of their magnitudes, because the length of a vector mean falls toward zero when the directions scatter.
“Flown” is when the field was ON the leg — the first pilot entering to the last leaving — over the “Pilots” who started and flew the whole leg.
“Circling” is the narrower window the wind was actually measured in: first to last circle estimate any pilot logged while on the leg, from “From pilots” pilots. Glides produce no estimate, so a leg the field mostly glided shows a sliver of its flown window (or “—” where no one circled at all) — and a late leg the leaders glided can be measured EARLIER than the leg before it without either being wrong.
How strong the day’s climbs were, hour by hour
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction
When the day started, reached its peak, and ended. We group the thermal climbs of all pilots by the hour in which each climb started, labelled in the time zone of the competition. The median and the 90th-percentile average climb rate for each hour show how the lift developed. The first row is the whole task, measured over every climb of the day in one set, and not as an average of the hourly rows. This metric describes the day, so it has no value for each pilot.
Climb by hour
| Period | Median (m/s) | p90 (m/s) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole task | 1.0 | 1.9 | 195 |
| 1.8 | 2.3 | 4 | |
| 1.1 | 2.1 | 88 | |
| 1.0 | 1.7 | 72 | |
| 0.9 | 1.4 | 29 | |
| 0.6 | 0.6 | 2 |
The average climb rate of every thermal use across the field, grouped by the start of the climb. The hours are in the time zone of the competition. The whole-task row is measured over all of those climbs together, not averaged from the hours.
Share of the flight spent in air that wasn’t sinking
Measured in percent · no expected direction
How much of the flight was in air worth being in. The value is the share of the airborne time of a pilot, on the shared grid, with a 30 s-smoothed vario at or above −0.5 m/s. The time they flew, the line they steered and the way the flight ended all feed this value. It is therefore a reading of the day as much as of the pilot. There is no expected direction, and the sign of the correlation is the finding. The timing table compares the window of the day’s best climbs against the time when the field launched.
Day timing
| Time | |
|---|---|
| Best conditions | |
| Earliest takeoff | |
| Median takeoff | |
| Latest takeoff |
Best conditions is the one-hour window with the strongest median climb (1.1 m/s), among hours with enough climbs to be representative (≥20% of the busiest hour).
best: too few pilots (0.54)
| # | Pilot | Out-climb | Core s | LeaveRate | Kept% | TopOut% | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andy Schmidt | 69 (25 shared climbs) | 45 (19 climbs ≥ 60 s) | 1.2 (13 climbs ≥ 90 s) | 62 (8/13 circling bouts led to climbs) | 45 (mean on-course altitude 34% of band) | 0.20 (265 circles, 65% left) |
| 2 | James Wynd | 78 (10 shared climbs) | — (instrument records every 5 s; this measure needs every 4 s or faster) | 1.0 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s) | 36 (4/11 circling bouts led to climbs) | 49 (mean on-course altitude 42% of band) | — (instrument records every 5 s; this measure needs every 2 s or faster) |
| 3 | Donny Gardner | 67 (12 shared climbs) | 42 (13 climbs ≥ 60 s) | 1.1 (12 climbs ≥ 90 s) | 78 (7/9 circling bouts led to climbs) | 53 (mean on-course altitude 41% of band) | 0.15 (174 circles, 70% left) |
| 4 | Anthony Meechan | 85 (17 shared climbs) | 32 (5 climbs ≥ 60 s) | 2.7 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s) | 67 (2/3 circling bouts led to climbs) | -10 (mean on-course altitude 13% of band) | 0.21 (58 circles, 98% left) |
| 5 | Brett Huggan | 73 (3 shared climbs) | — (instrument records every 5 s; this measure needs every 4 s or faster) | 2.0 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s) | — | — | — (instrument records every 5 s; this measure needs every 2 s or faster) |
| 6 | Amber Tsai | 57 (8 shared climbs) | 1 (1 climb ≥ 60 s) | 1.4 (1 climb ≥ 90 s) | 67 (2/3 circling bouts led to climbs) | 8 (mean on-course altitude 13% of band) | 0.15 (51 circles, 92% left) |
| 7 | Mark Tyminski | 73 (13 shared climbs) | 42 (4 climbs ≥ 60 s) | 0.9 (3 climbs ≥ 90 s) | — | 9 (mean on-course altitude 4% of band) | 0.18 (115 circles, 94% left) |
| 8 | John Greenwood | 67 (25 shared climbs) | 34 (13 climbs ≥ 60 s) | 1.2 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s) | 55 (6/11 circling bouts led to climbs) | 33 (mean on-course altitude 34% of band) | 0.16 (192 circles, 51% left) |
Time to core thermals
Measured in seconds · no expected direction
How long the pilot takes to get into the best lift after they arrive in a thermal. For each thermal of 60 s or more, we measure the seconds from the entry until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the thermals of the pilot. There is no expected direction. Time spent working into the core is not lost if the pilot ends up in the better lift, so the sign of the correlation says whether the hunt paid on this day. We leave out a pilot whose instrument records a position only every 5 seconds or less often. A track that coarse cannot show this detail, and the pilot would seem to fly differently when they do not.
2 pilots left out: their instruments record a position only every 5 s, too seldom for this measure.
Share of lift turned in that was kept as a climb
Measured in percent · no expected direction
How selective the pilot is about the lift they stop for. Each period of circling of 30 s or more after the start counts as lift that the pilot sampled. If the period overlaps a detected thermal, the pilot kept that lift. If it does not, they turned a few circles and left it. The value is the percentage kept. A low value means they are selective. A high value means they keep almost every climb they turn in. There is no expected direction: selection wins on a strong day and wastes time on a weak one.
Acceptance by hour
| Hour | Median accepted (%) | pilots |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 5 | |
| 50 | 6 | |
| 75 | 3 | |
| 50 | 1 |
Median per-pilot acceptance %, bucketed by the hour (competition time zone).
How round and consistent the circles were
Measured in ratio · no expected direction
Whether the pilot flies clean, repeatable circles, or moves around the thermal. We fit each detected circle by least squares. The RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn was. The value is the median over all of the circles of the pilot. A lower value means smoother and more consistent turns. There is no expected direction: a rough trace can be a pilot chasing a drifting or broken core rather than a pilot circling badly. We leave out a pilot whose instrument records a position less often than every 2 seconds. A track that coarse cannot show this detail, and the pilot would seem to fly differently when they do not.
Turn direction across the field: 70% left (882 circles).
2 pilots left out: their instruments record a position only every 5 s, too seldom for this measure.
best: too few pilots (0.21)
best: too few pilots (0.50)
best: could be chance (0.65)
| # | Pilot | InGaggle% | Marked% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andy Schmidt | 9 | 9 (3/35 climbs marked) |
| 2 | James Wynd | 17 | 27 (3/11 climbs marked) |
| 3 | Donny Gardner | 14 | 4 (1/24 climbs marked) |
| 4 | Anthony Meechan | 41 | 58 (7/12 climbs marked) |
| 5 | Brett Huggan | 0 | — |
| 6 | Amber Tsai | 7 | 20 (1/5 climbs marked) |
| 7 | Mark Tyminski | 0 | 0 (0/3 climbs marked) |
| 8 | John Greenwood | 1 | 11 (3/27 climbs marked) |
Time spent flying with a gaggle
Measured in percent · no expected direction
Whether the pilot raced with other pilots or alone. The value is the share of their flying time after the start inside a detected gaggle, that is, clustered with one other racing pilot or more on the shared time grid. There is no expected direction. A gaggle increases the power to search for lift, but it also holds a pilot to its own speed. The sign of the correlation says which of the two occurred here.
4 gaggle episodes detected (peak size 2 pilots).