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Task 2 (Open)

How the field actually flew this task, and which behaviours separated it.

Analysis computed

Pilots analysed
39
Sampling
every 10s
Shared thermals
77 of 286multi-pilot
Working band
8842580 m
Phase coverage
100%

3 pilots are in the standings but not in this analysis:

  • Alexander Kotscored from a manual flight report — no tracklog to analyse
  • Randall Clotworthyscored from a manual flight report — no tracklog to analyse
  • Dustan Hansenscored from a manual flight report — no tracklog to analyse

Correlations are measured against the published ranks, which include these pilots; their behaviour simply cannot be measured without a tracklog.

What separated the field

Each metric's Spearman correlation against the published rank. Rank 1 is best, so a metric where more is better shows a negative ρ. Bigger bars mean the metric separated the field more sharply on this task. Select a row to see that metric plotted against rank.

MetricρStrengthnVerdictFamily
Glide speed (post-start)-0.79
39strongGliding
Glide L/D vs field (per leg)-0.73
36strongGliding
Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)0.68
36strongGliding
Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)-0.62
39strongGaggle
Altitude margin over final glide at ESS0.58
29strongRace craft
Search fraction of the speed section0.58
39strongDecision-making
Climbs per 100 km flown0.56
36strongDecision-making
Gaggle departure win rate-0.52
25strongGaggle
Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs-0.50
39moderateClimbing
Start delay (gate to crossing)0.47
39moderateRace craft
Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal-0.41
39moderateClimbing
Dolphin climb fraction0.38
39moderateGliding
Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)-0.36
39moderateGaggle
Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)-0.32
38moderateDecision-making
Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band-0.29
39within noiseClimbing
Time in non-sinking air0.28
39within noiseDay profile & wind
Climb rate vs field in shared thermals-0.23
38within noiseClimbing
Speed-to-fly proxy-0.14
38within noiseGliding
Time to core a thermal0.08
39within noiseClimbing
Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)0.05
39within noiseDecision-making
Circle fit error relative to circle radius-0.02
38within noiseClimbing

Verdicts: strong |ρ| ≥ 0.5, moderate ≥ 0.3, weak below — but only after clearing the noise floor for that metric's n. within noise means shuffled ranks produce a coefficient that size more than 5% of the time, so it is indistinguishable from luck whatever its magnitude.

With 21 metrics ranked on this one task, the top rows are partly selection luck — trust the metrics that repeat across tasks in the competition-level analysis.

Glide speed (post-start)

Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.

Each dot is a pilot: across is the metric's value, up is a better rank. ρ = -0.79 (strong, n = 39). More is expected to be better here, and it was: top ranks gather to the right.
  • Field glide speed: median 60.3 km/h · p90 69.0 km/h (39 pilots)

Outcome checks

These metrics are derived from the race outcome itself, so they correlate with rank by construction — a low |ρ| here questions the eval, not the flying. Their per-pilot diagnostics stay in the Race craft section below.

MetricρStrengthnVerdict
Time behind the leader at ESS0.99
29strong
Time lost on speed-section legs0.65
36strong

The whole field at a glance

1. Olav Opsanger
2. Scott Barrett
3. Hughbert Alexander
4. Steve Docherty
5. James Atkinson
6. Adam Stevens
7. Guy Hubbard
8. Sam Prest
9. Rohan Taylor
10. Rohan Holtkamp
11. Peter Burkitt
12. Steve Blenkinsop
13. Stuart Cathcart
14. Peter Adriaans
15. Ward Gunn
16. Richard Martin
17. Paul Bissett-Amess
18. Jon Durand
19. Neale Halsall
20. Adrian Connor
21. James Wynd
22. Peter Tolhurst
23. Corinna Schwiegershausen
24. Jason Lannstrom
25. John Harriott
26. Troy Horton
27. Jay Kubeil
28. Andrew Sutton
29. Andrew Taylor
30. Peter Garrone
31. Neil Hooke
32. Jason Carman
33. Vic Hare
34. Magnus Ronningen
35. Dean Bayly
36. David Jackson
37. Mitch Butler
38. Mark Jeffree
39. Dustan Hansen
Pilots in rank order against every metric: darker = a better percentile in this field (empty = not applicable). Column order follows the family sections below, which carry the exact values. † No good/bad direction — shade is position in the field, not quality.

Pilot style clusters

Groups are flying style, not score — the rank spread on each shows where that style did and did not pay. Each group is named after its strongest signature; ★ marks the pilot most typical of their group.

Group ABold leavers

26 pilots · ranks 137 · median 13.5 · middle half 7.320.8

  • HighGaggle departure win rate group median P70 in this field (92 percent)
  • LowLow saves (climbs from the bottom of the band) group median P32 in this field (0.0 count)
  • LowSearch fraction of the speed section group median P33 in this field (20 percent) · usually a strength
  • HighGaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle) group median P66 in this field (48 percent)
  • 1. Olav Opsanger
  • 2. Scott Barrett
  • 3. Hughbert Alexander
  • 4. Steve Docherty
  • 5. James Atkinson
  • 6. Adam Stevens
  • 7. Guy Hubbard
  • 8. Sam Prest
  • 9. Rohan Taylor (most typical of this group)
  • 10. Rohan Holtkamp
  • 11. Peter Burkitt
  • 12. Steve Blenkinsop
  • 13. Stuart Cathcart
  • 14. Peter Adriaans
  • 15. Ward Gunn
  • 16. Richard Martin
  • 17. Paul Bissett-Amess
  • 18. Jon Durand
  • 20. Adrian Connor
  • 21. James Wynd
  • 22. Peter Tolhurst
  • 23. Corinna Schwiegershausen
  • 24. Jason Lannstrom
  • 29. Andrew Taylor
  • 31. Neil Hooke
  • 37. Mitch Butler

Group BStop-often flyers

13 pilots · ranks 1939 · median 32 · middle half 2735

  • HighClimbs per 100 km flown group median P86 in this field (57.5 count) · usually costly
  • HighTrack efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance) group median P86 in this field (1.60 ratio) · usually costly
  • LowGlide speed (post-start) group median P16 in this field (52.7 kilometres per hour) · usually costly
  • LowAltitude floor (band % at climb decisions) group median P18 in this field (40 percent) · usually costly
  • 19. Neale Halsall
  • 25. John Harriott
  • 26. Troy Horton
  • 27. Jay Kubeil
  • 28. Andrew Sutton
  • 30. Peter Garrone (most typical of this group)
  • 32. Jason Carman
  • 33. Vic Hare
  • 34. Magnus Ronningen
  • 35. Dean Bayly
  • 36. David Jackson
  • 38. Mark Jeffree
  • 39. Dustan Hansen

Pilots are grouped by flying style, not by score: every behavioural metric is rank-transformed to a within-field percentile, pilots are compared by the mean percentile gap over the metrics both have (missing values are never imputed), and Ward-linkage agglomeration forms the groups, with the number of groups chosen by the best mean silhouette. Each group is annotated with the GAP-rank spread of its members — where a style did and did not pay. Here: 39 pilots on 21 behavioural metrics formed 2 groups (k searched 26); mean silhouette 0.22 — near 0 means soft group boundaries, near 1 tight well-separated groups.

The metrics in detail

strongest |ρ| 0.28

strongest |ρ| 0.50

strongest |ρ| 0.79

#PilotGlideSpdL/D vs fSTFproxyTrackEffDolphin%
1Olav Opsanger77.4 (8 glides, 40 min gliding)1.07 (5 legs compared)13.0 (7 glide→climb pairs)1.18 (5 legs completed)8 (300 of 3777 m gained outside thermals)
2Scott Barrett70.5 (11 glides, 48 min gliding)1.05 (4 legs compared)4.4 (10 glide→climb pairs)1.11 (5 legs completed)4 (177 of 5055 m gained outside thermals)
3Hughbert Alexander67.3 (13 glides, 48 min gliding)1.19 (5 legs compared)5.9 (13 glide→climb pairs)1.27 (5 legs completed)7 (314 of 4455 m gained outside thermals)
4Steve Docherty70.0 (17 glides, 52 min gliding)1.20 (4 legs compared)-4.4 (16 glide→climb pairs)1.27 (5 legs completed)6 (228 of 3957 m gained outside thermals)
5James Atkinson61.9 (12 glides, 54 min gliding)1.17 (4 legs compared)1.0 (11 glide→climb pairs)1.21 (5 legs completed)7 (274 of 4066 m gained outside thermals)
6Adam Stevens68.8 (13 glides, 55 min gliding)1.09 (5 legs compared)-4.5 (12 glide→climb pairs)1.18 (5 legs completed)5 (202 of 4447 m gained outside thermals)
7Guy Hubbard68.2 (14 glides, 50 min gliding)1.07 (4 legs compared)-3.5 (13 glide→climb pairs)1.31 (5 legs completed)3 (131 of 4684 m gained outside thermals)
8Sam Prest70.4 (13 glides, 50 min gliding)1.06 (4 legs compared)4.6 (12 glide→climb pairs)1.27 (5 legs completed)8 (379 of 4590 m gained outside thermals)
9Rohan Taylor67.7 (12 glides, 63 min gliding)1.12 (4 legs compared)0.4 (11 glide→climb pairs)1.34 (5 legs completed)7 (369 of 5030 m gained outside thermals)
10Rohan Holtkamp64.9 (20 glides, 62 min gliding)1.10 (5 legs compared)-0.0 (19 glide→climb pairs)1.29 (5 legs completed)11 (493 of 4398 m gained outside thermals)
11Peter Burkitt66.6 (13 glides, 57 min gliding)1.02 (4 legs compared)1.7 (12 glide→climb pairs)1.24 (5 legs completed)10 (494 of 4834 m gained outside thermals)
12Steve Blenkinsop67.8 (13 glides, 61 min gliding)0.93 (5 legs compared)-8.0 (12 glide→climb pairs)1.32 (5 legs completed)3 (140 of 5383 m gained outside thermals)
13Stuart Cathcart57.3 (11 glides, 55 min gliding)1.17 (5 legs compared)-1.0 (10 glide→climb pairs)1.30 (5 legs completed)3 (136 of 4447 m gained outside thermals)
14Peter Adriaans60.6 (21 glides, 64 min gliding)1.04 (5 legs compared)1.4 (20 glide→climb pairs)1.33 (5 legs completed)7 (287 of 4408 m gained outside thermals)
15Ward Gunn60.1 (19 glides, 72 min gliding)1.19 (5 legs compared)1.3 (18 glide→climb pairs)1.40 (5 legs completed)8 (406 of 5211 m gained outside thermals)
16Richard Martin63.8 (20 glides, 69 min gliding)1.09 (5 legs compared)0.2 (19 glide→climb pairs)1.52 (5 legs completed)12 (554 of 4773 m gained outside thermals)
17Paul Bissett-Amess59.7 (15 glides, 74 min gliding)1.11 (5 legs compared)-1.2 (14 glide→climb pairs)1.40 (5 legs completed)9 (408 of 4516 m gained outside thermals)
18Jon Durand60.7 (17 glides, 70 min gliding)1.01 (4 legs compared)3.1 (16 glide→climb pairs)1.33 (5 legs completed)10 (514 of 5375 m gained outside thermals)
19Neale Halsall64.1 (21 glides, 63 min gliding)0.98 (5 legs compared)-2.3 (20 glide→climb pairs)1.42 (5 legs completed)13 (685 of 5386 m gained outside thermals)
20Adrian Connor56.5 (21 glides, 76 min gliding)0.99 (4 legs compared)1.3 (20 glide→climb pairs)1.55 (5 legs completed)13 (655 of 5018 m gained outside thermals)
21James Wynd64.6 (7 glides, 50 min gliding)0.92 (5 legs compared)1.2 (6 glide→climb pairs)1.31 (5 legs completed)2 (92 of 5340 m gained outside thermals)
22Peter Tolhurst53.9 (18 glides, 81 min gliding)0.92 (4 legs compared)2.9 (17 glide→climb pairs)1.42 (5 legs completed)10 (596 of 5936 m gained outside thermals)
23Corinna Schwiegershausen60.3 (8 glides, 63 min gliding)0.95 (5 legs compared)-7.2 (7 glide→climb pairs)1.34 (5 legs completed)5 (327 of 6468 m gained outside thermals)
24Jason Lannstrom52.9 (21 glides, 75 min gliding)0.86 (4 legs compared)2.7 (20 glide→climb pairs)1.38 (5 legs completed)8 (504 of 6033 m gained outside thermals)
25John Harriott52.7 (10 glides, 103 min gliding)1.11 (4 legs compared)0.5 (9 glide→climb pairs)1.54 (5 legs completed)6 (347 of 5747 m gained outside thermals)
26Troy Horton51.6 (21 glides, 86 min gliding)0.92 (5 legs compared)0.5 (20 glide→climb pairs)1.48 (5 legs completed)11 (711 of 6451 m gained outside thermals)
27Jay Kubeil58.5 (36 glides, 95 min gliding)1.00 (4 legs compared)-0.6 (35 glide→climb pairs)1.93 (5 legs completed)20 (1478 of 7473 m gained outside thermals)
28Andrew Sutton53.3 (24 glides, 92 min gliding)0.99 (5 legs compared)3.6 (23 glide→climb pairs)1.55 (5 legs completed)11 (687 of 6127 m gained outside thermals)
29Andrew Taylor53.5 (9 glides, 71 min gliding)0.88 (4 legs compared)3.8 (8 glide→climb pairs)1.25 (5 legs completed)3 (173 of 6357 m gained outside thermals)
30Peter Garrone51.7 (21 glides, 67 min gliding)0.71 (3 legs compared)0.9 (20 glide→climb pairs)1.60 (3 legs completed)7 (351 of 5121 m gained outside thermals)
31Neil Hooke59.4 (13 glides, 61 min gliding)0.84 (2 legs compared)-1.9 (12 glide→climb pairs)1.47 (2 legs completed)2 (96 of 5019 m gained outside thermals)
32Jason Carman47.1 (11 glides, 67 min gliding)0.67 (2 legs compared)0.1 (10 glide→climb pairs)2.05 (2 legs completed)5 (313 of 6548 m gained outside thermals)
33Vic Hare65.7 (10 glides, 47 min gliding)1.09 (2 legs compared)-0.4 (9 glide→climb pairs)2.07 (2 legs completed)14 (246 of 1695 m gained outside thermals)
34Magnus Ronningen45.5 (12 glides, 50 min gliding)0.75 (2 legs compared)-3.9 (11 glide→climb pairs)1.90 (2 legs completed)15 (364 of 2484 m gained outside thermals)
35Dean Bayly45.9 (10 glides, 48 min gliding)0.71 (2 legs compared)-3.6 (9 glide→climb pairs)1.82 (2 legs completed)12 (362 of 2996 m gained outside thermals)
36David Jackson53.3 (8 glides, 36 min gliding)0.83 (1 leg compared)2.7 (7 glide→climb pairs)1.03 (1 leg completed)19 (261 of 1338 m gained outside thermals)
37Mitch Butler63.4 (14 glides, 60 min gliding)-2.2 (13 glide→climb pairs)4 (180 of 4987 m gained outside thermals)
38Mark Jeffree50.2 (4 glides, 27 min gliding)21 (99 of 469 m gained outside thermals)
39Dustan Hansen53.4 (11 glides, 37 min gliding)2.5 (10 glide→climb pairs)13 (227 of 1688 m gained outside thermals)

Glide speed (post-start)

Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.

Field glide speed: median 60.3 km/h · p90 69.0 km/h (39 pilots)

strongest |ρ| 0.58

strongest |ρ| 0.62

strongest |ρ| 0.58

Metric glossary

How every metric on this page is measured. On screen, the ⓘ next to a metric opens the same description in place; in print, this section is the reference for all of them.

Day profile & wind

Wind (by hour and by leg)(“Wind” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction

Wind estimated from every pilot’s circling (centre drift preferred, ground-speed modulation as fallback), vector-averaged two ways: by hour of day (how the wind built and shifted through the day) and by speed-section leg (the wind each part of the course saw). Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Climb by hour(“Climb/hr” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

All pilots’ thermal climbs bucketed by the hour the climb started (labelled in the competition’s time zone): median and 90th-percentile average climb rate per hour show how the day’s lift developed. Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Time in non-sinking air(“NonSink%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot’s airborne time (on the shared grid) spent in non-sinking air — 30 s-smoothed vario at or above −0.5 m/s. Reflects how much of the flight met usable air: when flown, where the pilot steered, and how the flight ended all feed it, so the correlation sign is the finding. The timing table relates the day’s best climbs window to when the field actually launched.

Climbing

Climb rate vs field in shared thermals(“SharedPct” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

In every thermal two or more pilots used, each use is ranked by average climb rate; a use’s percentile is the share of strictly slower uses. The value is the duration-weighted mean percentile over the pilot’s shared climbs — centering skill isolated from thermal selection.

Time to core a thermal(“Core s” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each thermal of at least 60 s, the seconds from entering until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the pilot’s thermals — how fast they centre the best lift after arriving.

Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal(“ExitDecay” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

For each thermal of at least 90 s, the climb rate over its final 30 s — the "give-up rate". The value is the median: low means the pilot abandons weakening lift early, high means they ride climbs to the end; the correlation sign says which behaviour paid on this task.

Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs(“Accept%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.

Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band(“ExitBand%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

The altitude at which the pilot left each post-start thermal, as a percentage of the day’s working band (0% = field floor, 100% = field ceiling); the value is the median. High means topping out every climb, low means leaving early with climb still available.

Circle fit error relative to circle radius(“Smooth” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.

Gliding

Glide speed (post-start)(“GlideSpd” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.

Glide L/D vs field (per leg)(“L/D vs f” in tables)
Measured in ratio · higher is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot's glide-phase L/D (path distance ÷ net altitude lost while gliding; legs losing under 100 m skipped) is divided by the field's median L/D on that same leg, then averaged over legs. Above 1.0 means the pilot found better glide lines than the field on the same legs.

Speed-to-fly proxy(“STFproxy” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

A speed-to-fly PROXY — no glider polar data exists. Each post-start glide is paired with the climb rate of the next thermal starting within 5 minutes; the value is the mean glide speed flown before stronger-than-median climbs minus the mean before weaker ones. Positive means the pilot speeds up when the next climb justifies it.

Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)(“TrackEff” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Route distance flown on each completed speed-section leg — full path outside climbs, each climb counted as its net drift — ÷ the leg's optimized distance, averaged with optimized-distance weights. Closer to 1.0 means less deviation from the optimal course line; circling path is excluded, so stopping to climb does not read as bad line choice.

Dolphin climb fraction(“Dolphin%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of post-start altitude gain (10 s-smoothed) made outside detected thermals — climbing on the run instead of stopping to circle. Neutral: the correlation sign shows whether dolphin climbing paid on this day.

Decision-making

Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)(“Floor%” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

Finds each pilot's post-start altitude minima (30 s-smoothed, at least 100 m below the surrounding maxima) — the points where they stopped descending and committed to a climb — and reports the median as a percentage of the day's working band. Higher means the pilot keeps more margin in hand before taking a climb.

Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)(“LowSaves” in tables)
Measured in count · no expected direction

Counts post-start climbs entered below 15% of the working band that went on to gain at least 300 m — genuine low saves. Zero is a real score for a started pilot; the correlation sign says whether digging out or never getting low is what pays.

Climbs per 100 km flown(“Clm/100km” in tables)
Measured in count · lower is better

Post-start thermal count per 100 km of scored flown distance — how often the pilot stops to circle. Each pilot's note adds their mean climb percentile within shared thermals, so few stops can be read together with climb strength.

Search fraction of the speed section(“Search%” in tables)
Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Gaggle

Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)(“Affinity” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start flying time spent inside a detected gaggle (clustered with at least one other racing pilot on the shared time grid). Neutral: the correlation sign says whether sticking with company paid on the day.

Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)(“Marked%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start climbs where another pilot was already established (at least 30 s) and still climbing in the same thermal when they joined. High = climbs on others' markers; low = finds their own lift.

Gaggle departure win rate(“DepartWin” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

When a pilot leaves a gaggle that keeps flying, did leaving pay off? We compare the leaver's arrival at the next turnpoint against the median arrival of the pilots who stayed. Win rate > 50% means their departures beat the gaggle. Only pilots still in the gaggle after the split who reached that turnpoint after it count as stayers.

Race craft

Start delay (gate to crossing)(“StartDly” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

Seconds from the start gate taken (or the pilot’s own crossing on elapsed-time tasks, where the delay is 0 by definition) to the scored SSS crossing. The start table adds crossing altitude and how far behind the leading already-started pilot each start was.

Time lost on speed-section legs(“LegLost” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot’s leg time is compared with the mean of the top-10 (by rank) pilots who completed that leg; only losses count, and the losses are summed. Summed leg times are race time and the reference is defined by rank, so this tracks the outcome by construction — read the waterfall table (every leg against the task winner) for the diagnostic, not the correlation for a finding.

Time behind the leader at ESS(“Behind” in tables)
Measured in minutes · lower is better

At each speed-section turnpoint, elapsed race time (reaching minus own start) is compared with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint; the scalar is minutes behind at ESS. Expected to track final rank almost perfectly — this metric is the eval’s sanity check.

Altitude margin over final glide at ESS(“ESSMargin” in tables)
Measured in metres · lower is better

Altitude at ESS minus the altitude needed to glide to goal at the sport’s standard glide ratio (S7F §12.3.6: 5.0 HG / 4.0 PG). A big positive margin is altitude — i.e. time — left unspent.

Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb(“FinalGl” in tables)
Measured in ratio · no expected direction

At the pilot’s last climb before ESS (or landing): distance to goal divided by height above goal — the glide ratio they committed to. Only counted when that climb ended within 1.5× the final leg’s distance of goal.