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Task 1 (Open)

How the field actually flew this task, and which behaviours separated it.

Analysis computed

Pilots analysed
29
Sampling
every 10s
Shared thermals
52 of 179multi-pilot
Working band
9102558 m
Phase coverage
100%

3 pilots are in the standings but not in this analysis:

  • Dean Baylyscored from a manual flight report — no tracklog to analyse
  • Richard Hughesscored from a manual flight report — no tracklog to analyse
  • Sam Prestscored from a manual flight report — no tracklog to analyse

Correlations are measured against the published ranks, which include these pilots; their behaviour simply cannot be measured without a tracklog.

What separated the field

Each metric's Spearman correlation against the published rank. Rank 1 is best, so a metric where more is better shows a negative ρ. Bigger bars mean the metric separated the field more sharply on this task. Select a row to see that metric plotted against rank.

MetricρStrengthnVerdictFamily
Search fraction of the speed section0.79
27strongDecision-making
Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)0.66
21strongGliding
Glide speed (post-start)-0.63
26strongGliding
Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band-0.50
26moderateClimbing
Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs-0.48
23moderateClimbing
Speed-to-fly proxy0.31
22within noiseGliding
Circle fit error relative to circle radius0.31
26within noiseClimbing
Climb rate vs field in shared thermals-0.27
27within noiseClimbing
Time in non-sinking air0.24
28within noiseDay profile & wind
Climbs per 100 km flown0.22
20within noiseDecision-making
Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal-0.20
26within noiseClimbing
Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)-0.17
24within noiseDecision-making
Dolphin climb fraction0.15
25within noiseGliding
Glide L/D vs field (per leg)-0.14
20within noiseGliding
Time to core a thermal0.10
26within noiseClimbing
Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)-0.05
26within noiseGaggle
Start delay (gate to crossing)-0.05
27within noiseRace craft
Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)0.03
27within noiseDecision-making
Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)-0.02
24within noiseGaggle
Altitude margin over final glide at ESS-0.01
15within noiseRace craft
Gaggle departure win rate0.00
7n too smallGaggle

Verdicts: strong |ρ| ≥ 0.5, moderate ≥ 0.3, weak below — but only after clearing the noise floor for that metric's n. within noise means shuffled ranks produce a coefficient that size more than 5% of the time, so it is indistinguishable from luck whatever its magnitude.

With 21 metrics ranked on this one task, the top rows are partly selection luck — trust the metrics that repeat across tasks in the competition-level analysis.

1 metric correlated fewer than 8 pilots — treat those rows as indicative only.

Search fraction of the speed section

Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Each dot is a pilot: across is the metric's value, up is a better rank. ρ = 0.79 (strong, n = 27). Less is expected to be better here, and it was: top ranks gather to the left. 2 pilots have no value and are not plotted.
  • Speed-section phase shares, field p25/median/p75: climb 35/39/44% · glide 18/30/35% · search 24/28/43%

Outcome checks

These metrics are derived from the race outcome itself, so they correlate with rank by construction — a low |ρ| here questions the eval, not the flying. Their per-pilot diagnostics stay in the Race craft section below.

MetricρStrengthnVerdict
Time behind the leader at ESS1.00
15strong
Time lost on speed-section legs0.17
21within noise

The whole field at a glance

1. Todd Wisewould
2. Peter Adriaans
3. Michael Free
4. Randall Clotworthy
5. Tony Cross
6. Adam Stevens
7. Steve Blenkinsop
8. Harrison Rowntree
9. Mitch Butler
10. Hughbert Alexander
11. Andy Schmidt
12. Neil Hooke
13. Dave Moore
14. Mark Divito
15. Tushar Pokle
16. Neale Halsall
17. Ollie Chitty
18. Pete Bolton
19. Steve Norman
20. Jason Carman
21. Keith Lavers
22. Rohan Holtkamp
23. James Wynd
24. Jay Kubeil
25. James Atkinson
26. Bruce Atkinson
27. Marcus De Vecchi
28. James McGinty
29. Anthony Meechan
Pilots in rank order against every metric: darker = a better percentile in this field (empty = not applicable). Column order follows the family sections below, which carry the exact values. † No good/bad direction — shade is position in the field, not quality.

Pilot style clusters

Groups are flying style, not score — the rank spread on each shows where that style did and did not pay. Each group is named after its strongest signature; ★ marks the pilot most typical of their group.

Group AGaggle flyers

15 pilots · ranks 123 · median 12 · middle half 5.517.5

  • HighGaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle) group median P72 in this field (36 percent)
  • HighAltitude margin over final glide at ESS group median P71 in this field (688 metres) · usually costly
  • LowLow saves (climbs from the bottom of the band) group median P29 in this field (0.0 count)
  • LowDolphin climb fraction group median P29 in this field (6 percent)
  • 1. Todd Wisewould
  • 2. Peter Adriaans
  • 3. Michael Free
  • 5. Tony Cross
  • 6. Adam Stevens
  • 7. Steve Blenkinsop
  • 9. Mitch Butler
  • 12. Neil Hooke
  • 13. Dave Moore (most typical of this group)
  • 16. Neale Halsall
  • 17. Ollie Chitty
  • 18. Pete Bolton
  • 20. Jason Carman
  • 22. Rohan Holtkamp
  • 23. James Wynd

Group BDolphin flyers

9 pilots · ranks 424 · median 14 · middle half 1019

  • HighDolphin climb fraction group median P79 in this field (18 percent)
  • HighClimbs per 100 km flown group median P79 in this field (70.3 count) · usually costly
  • LowAltitude floor (band % at climb decisions) group median P22 in this field (25 percent) · usually costly
  • HighClimb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal group median P78 in this field (1.5 metres per second)
  • 4. Randall Clotworthy
  • 8. Harrison Rowntree
  • 10. Hughbert Alexander (most typical of this group)
  • 11. Andy Schmidt
  • 14. Mark Divito
  • 15. Tushar Pokle
  • 19. Steve Norman
  • 21. Keith Lavers
  • 24. Jay Kubeil

Not clustered: 25. James Atkinson — only 3 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 26. Bruce Atkinson — only 12 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 27. Marcus De Vecchi — only 11 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 28. James McGinty — only 1 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 29. Anthony Meechan — only 3 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%).

Pilots are grouped by flying style, not by score: every behavioural metric is rank-transformed to a within-field percentile, pilots are compared by the mean percentile gap over the metrics both have (missing values are never imputed), and Ward-linkage agglomeration forms the groups, with the number of groups chosen by the best mean silhouette. Each group is annotated with the GAP-rank spread of its members — where a style did and did not pay. Here: 24 pilots on 21 behavioural metrics formed 2 groups (k searched 26); mean silhouette 0.18 — near 0 means soft group boundaries, near 1 tight well-separated groups.

The metrics in detail

strongest |ρ| 0.24

strongest |ρ| 0.50

strongest |ρ| 0.66

#PilotGlideSpdL/D vs fSTFproxyTrackEffDolphin%
1Todd Wisewould70.7 (13 glides, 42 min gliding)0.93 (3 legs compared)-3.1 (12 glide→climb pairs)1.24 (4 legs completed)9 (354 of 4011 m gained outside thermals)
2Peter Adriaans65.4 (9 glides, 44 min gliding)1.11 (4 legs compared)-3.0 (8 glide→climb pairs)1.22 (4 legs completed)7 (234 of 3305 m gained outside thermals)
3Michael Free58.9 (8 glides, 56 min gliding)1.05 (3 legs compared)-3.1 (7 glide→climb pairs)1.17 (4 legs completed)3 (124 of 3636 m gained outside thermals)
4Randall Clotworthy60.7 (15 glides, 50 min gliding)1.08 (3 legs compared)2.5 (14 glide→climb pairs)1.37 (4 legs completed)16 (530 of 3329 m gained outside thermals)
5Tony Cross65.3 (19 glides, 47 min gliding)1.58 (4 legs compared)-1.6 (18 glide→climb pairs)1.33 (4 legs completed)10 (331 of 3244 m gained outside thermals)
6Adam Stevens70.2 (10 glides, 49 min gliding)1.08 (4 legs compared)-1.0 (9 glide→climb pairs)1.38 (4 legs completed)8 (337 of 4289 m gained outside thermals)
7Steve Blenkinsop63.9 (10 glides, 43 min gliding)0.97 (4 legs compared)8.7 (9 glide→climb pairs)1.20 (4 legs completed)5 (182 of 3821 m gained outside thermals)
8Harrison Rowntree66.9 (17 glides, 57 min gliding)1.13 (4 legs compared)-2.4 (16 glide→climb pairs)1.56 (4 legs completed)13 (566 of 4488 m gained outside thermals)
9Mitch Butler64.0 (11 glides, 51 min gliding)1.01 (4 legs compared)0.0 (10 glide→climb pairs)1.30 (4 legs completed)3 (131 of 4558 m gained outside thermals)
10Hughbert Alexander65.4 (16 glides, 55 min gliding)0.82 (4 legs compared)1.6 (16 glide→climb pairs)1.65 (4 legs completed)18 (1152 of 6434 m gained outside thermals)
11Andy Schmidt62.2 (12 glides, 55 min gliding)1.17 (4 legs compared)3.0 (11 glide→climb pairs)1.48 (4 legs completed)22 (1018 of 4698 m gained outside thermals)
12Neil Hooke57.7 (15 glides, 67 min gliding)0.97 (4 legs compared)-0.3 (14 glide→climb pairs)1.49 (4 legs completed)7 (322 of 4797 m gained outside thermals)
13Dave Moore60.6 (13 glides, 64 min gliding)1.05 (4 legs compared)4.7 (12 glide→climb pairs)1.60 (4 legs completed)4 (229 of 6025 m gained outside thermals)
14Mark Divito45.4 (23 glides, 95 min gliding)0.82 (4 legs compared)-1.9 (22 glide→climb pairs)1.98 (4 legs completed)8 (530 of 6410 m gained outside thermals)
15Tushar Pokle49.1 (36 glides, 103 min gliding)1.56 (3 legs compared)-0.8 (35 glide→climb pairs)2.03 (4 legs completed)12 (818 of 6911 m gained outside thermals)
16Neale Halsall63.9 (10 glides, 39 min gliding)1.75 (3 legs compared)-9.1 (9 glide→climb pairs)1.26 (3 legs completed)6 (177 of 2784 m gained outside thermals)
17Ollie Chitty61.2 (4 glides, 27 min gliding)0.90 (1 leg compared)1.33 (2 legs completed)3 (51 of 1831 m gained outside thermals)
18Pete Bolton57.3 (13 glides, 52 min gliding)3.2 (12 glide→climb pairs)1.92 (2 legs completed)12 (394 of 3343 m gained outside thermals)
19Steve Norman56.7 (13 glides, 40 min gliding)1.51 (2 legs compared)-3.5 (12 glide→climb pairs)1.41 (2 legs completed)21 (441 of 2064 m gained outside thermals)
20Jason Carman46.0 (4 glides, 29 min gliding)0.98 (2 legs compared)1.70 (2 legs completed)6 (117 of 2034 m gained outside thermals)
21Keith Lavers67.6 (13 glides, 25 min gliding)0.28 (1 leg compared)5.1 (12 glide→climb pairs)3.20 (1 leg completed)27 (964 of 3548 m gained outside thermals)
22Rohan Holtkamp57.1 (6 glides, 60 min gliding)20.4 (5 glide→climb pairs)7 (369 of 5164 m gained outside thermals)
23James Wynd63.9 (12 glides, 56 min gliding)-0.5 (11 glide→climb pairs)2 (85 of 4762 m gained outside thermals)
24Jay Kubeil50.8 (14 glides, 27 min gliding)0.6 (13 glide→climb pairs)19 (298 of 1544 m gained outside thermals)
25James Atkinson
26Bruce Atkinson44.7 (2 glides, 5 min gliding)19 (40 of 211 m gained outside thermals)
27Marcus De Vecchi39.9 (1 glides, 4 min gliding)
28James McGinty
29Anthony Meechan

Glide speed (post-start)

Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.

Field glide speed: median 60.9 km/h · p90 67.3 km/h (26 pilots)

strongest |ρ| 0.79

#PilotFloor%LowSavesClm/100kmSearch%
1Todd Wisewould25 (4 dips, lowest -5% of band)2.0 (deepest save from -6% of band)39.1 (mean shared-climb pctile 54%)23
2Peter Adriaans55 (7 dips, lowest 38% of band)0.029.3 (mean shared-climb pctile 49%)20
3Michael Free45 (5 dips, lowest 27% of band)0.021.5 (mean shared-climb pctile 42%)14
4Randall Clotworthy69 (6 dips, lowest 52% of band)0.056.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 57%)27
5Tony Cross84 (6 dips, lowest 54% of band)0.050.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 48%)23
6Adam Stevens41 (6 dips, lowest 30% of band)0.033.2 (mean shared-climb pctile 55%)24
7Steve Blenkinsop73 (8 dips, lowest 39% of band)0.035.2 (mean shared-climb pctile 50%)17
8Harrison Rowntree17 (7 dips, lowest -11% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 1% of band)54.7 (mean shared-climb pctile 67%)30
9Mitch Butler67 (8 dips, lowest 31% of band)0.031.2 (mean shared-climb pctile 36%)14
10Hughbert Alexander14 (7 dips, lowest -50% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 14% of band)84.0 (mean shared-climb pctile 62%)39
11Andy Schmidt16 (6 dips, lowest -4% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 6% of band)50.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 48%)24
12Neil Hooke43 (6 dips, lowest -10% of band)2.0 (deepest save from -1% of band)43.0 (mean shared-climb pctile 51%)30
13Dave Moore43 (8 dips, lowest 22% of band)0.037.1 (mean shared-climb pctile 45%)26
14Mark Divito37 (9 dips, lowest 2% of band)0.070.3 (mean shared-climb pctile 39%)28
15Tushar Pokle68 (12 dips, lowest -6% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 0% of band)103.5 (mean shared-climb pctile 53%)45
16Neale Halsall38 (4 dips, lowest 0% of band)0.039.0 (mean shared-climb pctile 41%)28
17Ollie Chitty22 (2 dips, lowest 13% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 15% of band)24.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 43%)35
18Pete Bolton78 (5 dips, lowest 22% of band)0.0115.4 (mean shared-climb pctile 52%)54
19Steve Norman43 (2 dips, lowest -4% of band)0.081.4 (mean shared-climb pctile 56%)30
20Jason Carman69 (3 dips, lowest 41% of band)0.018.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 46%)42
21Keith Lavers25 (6 dips, lowest -5% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -4% of band)75
22Rohan Holtkamp68 (7 dips, lowest -5% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 0% of band)27
23James Wynd40 (8 dips, lowest -8% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -8% of band)26
24Jay Kubeil-2 (3 dips, lowest -20% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 0% of band)52
25James Atkinson
26Bruce Atkinson0.048
27Marcus De Vecchi0.096
28James McGinty
29Anthony Meechan0.0100

Search fraction of the speed section

Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Speed-section phase shares, field p25/median/p75: climb 35/39/44% · glide 18/30/35% · search 24/28/43%

strongest |ρ| 0.05

strongest |ρ| 0.05

Metric glossary

How every metric on this page is measured. On screen, the ⓘ next to a metric opens the same description in place; in print, this section is the reference for all of them.

Day profile & wind

Wind (by hour and by leg)(“Wind” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction

Wind estimated from every pilot’s circling (centre drift preferred, ground-speed modulation as fallback), vector-averaged two ways: by hour of day (how the wind built and shifted through the day) and by speed-section leg (the wind each part of the course saw). Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Climb by hour(“Climb/hr” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

All pilots’ thermal climbs bucketed by the hour the climb started (labelled in the competition’s time zone): median and 90th-percentile average climb rate per hour show how the day’s lift developed. Field-level only — no per-pilot value.

Time in non-sinking air(“NonSink%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot’s airborne time (on the shared grid) spent in non-sinking air — 30 s-smoothed vario at or above −0.5 m/s. Reflects how much of the flight met usable air: when flown, where the pilot steered, and how the flight ended all feed it, so the correlation sign is the finding. The timing table relates the day’s best climbs window to when the field actually launched.

Climbing

Climb rate vs field in shared thermals(“SharedPct” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

In every thermal two or more pilots used, each use is ranked by average climb rate; a use’s percentile is the share of strictly slower uses. The value is the duration-weighted mean percentile over the pilot’s shared climbs — centering skill isolated from thermal selection.

Time to core a thermal(“Core s” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each thermal of at least 60 s, the seconds from entering until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the pilot’s thermals — how fast they centre the best lift after arriving.

Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal(“ExitDecay” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

For each thermal of at least 90 s, the climb rate over its final 30 s — the "give-up rate". The value is the median: low means the pilot abandons weakening lift early, high means they ride climbs to the end; the correlation sign says which behaviour paid on this task.

Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs(“Accept%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.

Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band(“ExitBand%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

The altitude at which the pilot left each post-start thermal, as a percentage of the day’s working band (0% = field floor, 100% = field ceiling); the value is the median. High means topping out every climb, low means leaving early with climb still available.

Circle fit error relative to circle radius(“Smooth” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.

Gliding

Glide speed (post-start)(“GlideSpd” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.

Glide L/D vs field (per leg)(“L/D vs f” in tables)
Measured in ratio · higher is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot's glide-phase L/D (path distance ÷ net altitude lost while gliding; legs losing under 100 m skipped) is divided by the field's median L/D on that same leg, then averaged over legs. Above 1.0 means the pilot found better glide lines than the field on the same legs.

Speed-to-fly proxy(“STFproxy” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

A speed-to-fly PROXY — no glider polar data exists. Each post-start glide is paired with the climb rate of the next thermal starting within 5 minutes; the value is the mean glide speed flown before stronger-than-median climbs minus the mean before weaker ones. Positive means the pilot speeds up when the next climb justifies it.

Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)(“TrackEff” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Route distance flown on each completed speed-section leg — full path outside climbs, each climb counted as its net drift — ÷ the leg's optimized distance, averaged with optimized-distance weights. Closer to 1.0 means less deviation from the optimal course line; circling path is excluded, so stopping to climb does not read as bad line choice.

Dolphin climb fraction(“Dolphin%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of post-start altitude gain (10 s-smoothed) made outside detected thermals — climbing on the run instead of stopping to circle. Neutral: the correlation sign shows whether dolphin climbing paid on this day.

Decision-making

Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)(“Floor%” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

Finds each pilot's post-start altitude minima (30 s-smoothed, at least 100 m below the surrounding maxima) — the points where they stopped descending and committed to a climb — and reports the median as a percentage of the day's working band. Higher means the pilot keeps more margin in hand before taking a climb.

Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)(“LowSaves” in tables)
Measured in count · no expected direction

Counts post-start climbs entered below 15% of the working band that went on to gain at least 300 m — genuine low saves. Zero is a real score for a started pilot; the correlation sign says whether digging out or never getting low is what pays.

Climbs per 100 km flown(“Clm/100km” in tables)
Measured in count · lower is better

Post-start thermal count per 100 km of scored flown distance — how often the pilot stops to circle. Each pilot's note adds their mean climb percentile within shared thermals, so few stops can be read together with climb strength.

Search fraction of the speed section(“Search%” in tables)
Measured in percent · lower is better

Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.

Gaggle

Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)(“Affinity” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start flying time spent inside a detected gaggle (clustered with at least one other racing pilot on the shared time grid). Neutral: the correlation sign says whether sticking with company paid on the day.

Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)(“Marked%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Share of a pilot's post-start climbs where another pilot was already established (at least 30 s) and still climbing in the same thermal when they joined. High = climbs on others' markers; low = finds their own lift.

Gaggle departure win rate(“DepartWin” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

When a pilot leaves a gaggle that keeps flying, did leaving pay off? We compare the leaver's arrival at the next turnpoint against the median arrival of the pilots who stayed. Win rate > 50% means their departures beat the gaggle. Only pilots still in the gaggle after the split who reached that turnpoint after it count as stayers.

Race craft

Start delay (gate to crossing)(“StartDly” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

Seconds from the start gate taken (or the pilot’s own crossing on elapsed-time tasks, where the delay is 0 by definition) to the scored SSS crossing. The start table adds crossing altitude and how far behind the leading already-started pilot each start was.

Time lost on speed-section legs(“LegLost” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot’s leg time is compared with the mean of the top-10 (by rank) pilots who completed that leg; only losses count, and the losses are summed. Summed leg times are race time and the reference is defined by rank, so this tracks the outcome by construction — read the waterfall table (every leg against the task winner) for the diagnostic, not the correlation for a finding.

Time behind the leader at ESS(“Behind” in tables)
Measured in minutes · lower is better

At each speed-section turnpoint, elapsed race time (reaching minus own start) is compared with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint; the scalar is minutes behind at ESS. Expected to track final rank almost perfectly — this metric is the eval’s sanity check.

Altitude margin over final glide at ESS(“ESSMargin” in tables)
Measured in metres · lower is better

Altitude at ESS minus the altitude needed to glide to goal at the sport’s standard glide ratio (S7F §12.3.6: 5.0 HG / 4.0 PG). A big positive margin is altitude — i.e. time — left unspent.

Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb(“FinalGl” in tables)
Measured in ratio · no expected direction

At the pilot’s last climb before ESS (or landing): distance to goal divided by height above goal — the glide ratio they committed to. Only counted when that climb ended within 1.5× the final leg’s distance of goal.