Field analysis
Corryong Cup 2023 — which behaviours separated the field, task by task.
Analysis computed
Pilot class: open
What separated the field, across tasks
A metric that holds its sign and magnitude across every task is telling you about flying. One that swings between tasks is telling you about the weather on those days. Rank 1 is best, so a metric where more is better shows a negative ρ.
| Metric | Trend | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | mean ρ | mean |ρ| | Consistency | comp ρ | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time behind the leader at ESS | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.94 | consistent 0−/4+ | 0.72 | 32 | strong | |
| Glide speed (post-start) | -0.84 | -0.81 | -0.61 | -0.76 | -0.77 | 0.77 | consistent 4−/0+ | -0.82 | 44 | strong | |
| Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance) | 0.83 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.75 | consistent 0−/4+ | 0.64 | 42 | strong | |
| Search fraction of the speed section | 0.70 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.69 | consistent 0−/4+ | 0.72 | 45 | strong | |
| Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle) | -0.78 | -0.57 | -0.58 | -0.65 | -0.65 | 0.65 | consistent 4−/0+ | -0.74 | 45 | strong | |
| Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs | -0.50 | -0.49 | -0.76 | -0.49 | -0.55 | 0.55 | consistent 4−/0+ | -0.64 | 43 | strong | |
| Time lost on speed-section legs | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.11 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.53 | consistent 0−/3+ | 0.49 | 42 | moderate | |
| Climbs per 100 km flown | 0.65 | 0.57 | 0.17 | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.52 | consistent 0−/3+ | 0.49 | 41 | moderate | |
| Start delay (gate to crossing) | 0.67 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.51 | consistent 0−/3+ | 0.85 | 45 | strong | |
| Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band | -0.75 | -0.27 | -0.22 | -0.67 | -0.49 | 0.49 | consistent 2−/0+ | -0.68 | 44 | strong | |
| Gaggle departure win rate | -0.52 | -0.45 | -0.26 | -0.55 | -0.44 | 0.44 | consistent 3−/0+ | -0.17 | 35 | within noise | |
| Glide L/D vs field (per leg) | -0.10 | -0.67 | -0.18 | -0.60 | -0.38 | 0.38 | consistent 2−/0+ | -0.41 | 42 | moderate | |
| Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb) | -0.65 | -0.29 | -0.05 | -0.45 | -0.38 | 0.38 | consistent 2−/0+ | -0.52 | 42 | strong | |
| Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions) | -0.47 | -0.24 | -0.15 | -0.64 | -0.38 | 0.38 | consistent 2−/0+ | -0.46 | 42 | moderate | |
| Dolphin climb fraction | 0.58 | 0.38 | -0.01 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.37 | consistent 0−/3+ | 0.42 | 42 | moderate | |
| Time in non-sinking air | 0.49 | 0.25 | -0.04 | 0.43 | 0.30 | 0.32 | consistent 0−/2+ | 0.22 | 45 | within noise | |
| Altitude margin over final glide at ESS | -0.01 | 0.54 | 0.12 | 0.38 | 0.28 | 0.29 | quiet 0−/1+ | 0.14 | 32 | within noise | |
| Climb rate vs field in shared thermals | -0.31 | -0.25 | 0.11 | -0.42 | -0.23 | 0.28 | consistent 2−/0+ | -0.25 | 45 | within noise | |
| Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal | -0.19 | -0.37 | -0.05 | -0.25 | -0.22 | 0.22 | quiet 1−/0+ | -0.26 | 45 | within noise | |
| Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band) | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.09 | quiet | -0.03 | 45 | within noise | |
| Speed-to-fly proxy | 0.06 | -0.09 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.12 | quiet | 0.04 | 42 | within noise | |
| Circle fit error relative to circle radius | 0.12 | -0.04 | -0.10 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.07 | quiet | -0.04 | 42 | within noise | |
| Time to core a thermal | -0.12 | 0.09 | -0.00 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.07 | quiet | -0.06 | 45 | within noise | |
| Wind (task / hourly / per leg) | — | — | — | — | — | — | quiet | — | — | ||
| Climb by hour | — | — | — | — | — | — | quiet | — | — | ||
| Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb | — | — | — | — | — | — | quiet | — | — |
Ranked by |mean ρ| (n-weighted signed mean), so consistent separation leads — flip-flopping tasks cancel there, while mean |ρ| keeps their per-day power visible; a large gap between the two means the payoff depended on the day. Consistency counts only tasks whose |ρ| cleared their noise floor (the filled sparkline dots; hollow = within noise): − means larger values went with better ranks. A split is a finding — the payoff depended on the day — not a defect.
Verdicts: strong |ρ| ≥ 0.5, moderate ≥ 0.3, weak below — but only after clearing the noise floor for that metric's n. within noise means shuffled ranks produce a coefficient that size more than 5% of the time, so it is indistinguishable from luck whatever its magnitude.
Consistency map
The same table as a picture: how much each behaviour separated the field per day (across) against how consistently it pulled one way (up).
Standings behind these figures
| # | Pilot | Tasks | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Barrett | 4 | 3496 |
| 2 | Rohan Holtkamp | 4 | 3205 |
| 3 | Rohan Taylor | 4 | 3203 |
| 4 | Olav Opsanger | 4 | 3148 |
| 5 | Steve Docherty | 4 | 2917 |
| 6 | Jon Durand | 4 | 2709 |
| 7 | Paul Bissett-Amess | 4 | 2529 |
| 8 | Corinna Schwiegershausen | 4 | 2468 |
| 9 | Hughbert Alexander | 4 | 2338 |
| 10 | Guy Hubbard | 4 | 2304 |
| 11 | Neale Halsall | 4 | 2267 |
| 12 | Peter Burkitt | 4 | 2259 |
| 13 | Steven Crosby | 3 | 2189 |
| 14 | Adam Stevens | 3 | 2140 |
| 15 | Stuart Cathcart | 4 | 2058 |
| 16 | James Atkinson | 4 | 1980 |
| 17 | Richard Martin | 4 | 1958 |
| 18 | Steve Blenkinsop | 3 | 1914 |
| 19 | Peter Adriaans | 4 | 1853 |
| 20 | James Wynd | 4 | 1743 |
| 21 | Jay Kubeil | 4 | 1687 |
| 22 | Ward Gunn | 4 | 1661 |
| 23 | Mitch Butler | 4 | 1453 |
| 24 | Neil Hooke | 4 | 1419 |
| 25 | Adrian Connor | 4 | 1346 |
| 26 | Sam Prest | 3 | 1221 |
| 27 | Andrew Sutton | 4 | 1146 |
| 28 | Vic Hare | 4 | 1038 |
| 29 | Troy Horton | 3 | 1033 |
| 30 | Peter Tolhurst | 4 | 1019 |
| 31 | John Harriott | 3 | 908 |
| 32 | Andrew Taylor | 3 | 797 |
| 33 | Peter Garrone | 4 | 699 |
| 34 | Dustan Hansen | 4 | 497 |
| 35 | Jason Lannstrom | 2 | 462 |
| 36 | Jason Carman | 4 | 434 |
| 37 | Magnus Ronningen | 3 | 430 |
| 38 | Dean Bayly | 2 | 411 |
| 39 | Mark Jeffree | 3 | 396 |
| 40 | David Jackson | 2 | 252 |
| 41 | Randall Clotworthy | 1 | 218 |
| 42 | Alexander Kot | 1 | 154 |
| 43 | Ted Sadowski | 1 | 80 |
| 44 | Donny Gardner | 1 | 74 |
| 45 | Richard Hughes | 1 | 57 |
Metric glossary
How every metric named above is measured. These are the engine's current method descriptions; each task's own report carries the same prose next to its numbers.
Day profile & wind
- Wind (by hour and by leg)(“Wind” in tables)
- Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction
Wind estimated from every pilot’s circling (centre drift preferred, ground-speed modulation as fallback), vector-averaged two ways: by hour of day (how the wind built and shifted through the day) and by speed-section leg (the wind each part of the course saw). Field-level only — no per-pilot value.
- Climb by hour(“Climb/hr” in tables)
- Measured in metres per second · no expected direction
All pilots’ thermal climbs bucketed by the hour the climb started (labelled in the competition’s time zone): median and 90th-percentile average climb rate per hour show how the day’s lift developed. Field-level only — no per-pilot value.
Climbing
- Time to core a thermal(“Core s” in tables)
- Measured in seconds · lower is better
For each thermal of at least 60 s, the seconds from entering until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the pilot’s thermals — how fast they centre the best lift after arriving.
- Climb rate over the last 30 s of each thermal(“ExitDecay” in tables)
- Measured in metres per second · no expected direction
For each thermal of at least 90 s, the climb rate over its final 30 s — the "give-up rate". The value is the median: low means the pilot abandons weakening lift early, high means they ride climbs to the end; the correlation sign says which behaviour paid on this task.
- Share of circling encounters accepted as climbs(“Accept%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Post-start circling bouts of at least 30 s are lift encounters; one that overlaps a detected thermal was accepted, otherwise the pilot circled and rejected the lift. The value is the percentage accepted — low means picky, high means they take almost everything they turn in.
- Thermal departure altitude as % of the working band(“ExitBand%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
The altitude at which the pilot left each post-start thermal, as a percentage of the day’s working band (0% = field floor, 100% = field ceiling); the value is the median. High means topping out every climb, low means leaving early with climb still available.
- Circle fit error relative to circle radius(“Smooth” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · lower is better
Each detected circle is least-squares fitted; its RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn really was. The value is the median over all the pilot’s circles — lower means smoother, more consistent turning.
Gliding
- Glide speed (post-start)(“GlideSpd” in tables)
- Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better
Duration-weighted mean ground speed over post-start glide segments (glide distance ÷ glide time). Higher means the pilot covers ground faster between climbs.
- Glide L/D vs field (per leg)(“L/D vs f” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · higher is better
For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot's glide-phase L/D (path distance ÷ net altitude lost while gliding; legs losing under 100 m skipped) is divided by the field's median L/D on that same leg, then averaged over legs. Above 1.0 means the pilot found better glide lines than the field on the same legs.
- Speed-to-fly proxy(“STFproxy” in tables)
- Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better
A speed-to-fly PROXY — no glider polar data exists. Each post-start glide is paired with the climb rate of the next thermal starting within 5 minutes; the value is the mean glide speed flown before stronger-than-median climbs minus the mean before weaker ones. Positive means the pilot speeds up when the next climb justifies it.
- Track efficiency (actual ÷ optimized leg distance)(“TrackEff” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · lower is better
Route distance flown on each completed speed-section leg — full path outside climbs, each climb counted as its net drift — ÷ the leg's optimized distance, averaged with optimized-distance weights. Closer to 1.0 means less deviation from the optimal course line; circling path is excluded, so stopping to climb does not read as bad line choice.
- Dolphin climb fraction(“Dolphin%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Share of post-start altitude gain (10 s-smoothed) made outside detected thermals — climbing on the run instead of stopping to circle. Neutral: the correlation sign shows whether dolphin climbing paid on this day.
Decision-making
- Altitude floor (band % at climb decisions)(“Floor%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · higher is better
Finds each pilot's post-start altitude minima (30 s-smoothed, at least 100 m below the surrounding maxima) — the points where they stopped descending and committed to a climb — and reports the median as a percentage of the day's working band. Higher means the pilot keeps more margin in hand before taking a climb.
- Low saves (climbs from the bottom of the band)(“LowSaves” in tables)
- Measured in count · no expected direction
Counts post-start climbs entered below 15% of the working band that went on to gain at least 300 m — genuine low saves. Zero is a real score for a started pilot; the correlation sign says whether digging out or never getting low is what pays.
- Climbs per 100 km flown(“Clm/100km” in tables)
- Measured in count · lower is better
Post-start thermal count per 100 km of scored flown distance — how often the pilot stops to circle. Each pilot's note adds their mean climb percentile within shared thermals, so few stops can be read together with climb strength.
- Search fraction of the speed section(“Search%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · lower is better
Share of speed-section time (start to ESS, or landing) spent searching — neither climbing in a thermal nor gliding with real net speed. Lower means less time leaks away between climbs.
Gaggle
- Gaggle affinity (post-start time in a gaggle)(“Affinity” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Share of a pilot's post-start flying time spent inside a detected gaggle (clustered with at least one other racing pilot on the shared time grid). Neutral: the correlation sign says whether sticking with company paid on the day.
- Marker usage (climbs entered on another pilot's climb)(“Marked%” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
Share of a pilot's post-start climbs where another pilot was already established (at least 30 s) and still climbing in the same thermal when they joined. High = climbs on others' markers; low = finds their own lift.
- Gaggle departure win rate(“DepartWin” in tables)
- Measured in percent · no expected direction
When a pilot leaves a gaggle that keeps flying, did leaving pay off? We compare the leaver's arrival at the next turnpoint against the median arrival of the pilots who stayed. Win rate > 50% means their departures beat the gaggle. Only pilots still in the gaggle after the split who reached that turnpoint after it count as stayers.
Race craft
- Start delay (gate to crossing)(“StartDly” in tables)
- Measured in seconds · lower is better
Seconds from the start gate taken (or the pilot’s own crossing on elapsed-time tasks, where the delay is 0 by definition) to the scored SSS crossing. The start table adds crossing altitude and how far behind the leading already-started pilot each start was.
- Time lost on speed-section legs(“LegLost” in tables)
- Measured in seconds · lower is better
For each completed speed-section leg, the pilot’s leg time is compared with the mean of the top-10 (by rank) pilots who completed that leg; only losses count, and the losses are summed. Summed leg times are race time and the reference is defined by rank, so this tracks the outcome by construction — read the waterfall table (every leg against the task winner) for the diagnostic, not the correlation for a finding.
- Time behind the leader at ESS(“Behind” in tables)
- Measured in minutes · lower is better
At each speed-section turnpoint, elapsed race time (reaching minus own start) is compared with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint; the scalar is minutes behind at ESS. Expected to track final rank almost perfectly — this metric is the eval’s sanity check.
- Altitude margin over final glide at ESS(“ESSMargin” in tables)
- Measured in metres · lower is better
Altitude at ESS minus the altitude needed to glide to goal at the sport’s standard glide ratio (S7F §12.3.6: 5.0 HG / 4.0 PG). A big positive margin is altitude — i.e. time — left unspent.
- Required glide ratio when leaving the last climb(“FinalGl” in tables)
- Measured in ratio · no expected direction
At the pilot’s last climb before ESS (or landing): distance to goal divided by height above goal — the glide ratio they committed to. Only counted when that climb ended within 1.5× the final leg’s distance of goal.